Replies to post #541729 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[HoldenWalker99]

Still 50-100% upside for JPS (lower for FNMAS/FMCKJ, higher for some cheaper $50 series) in short term if it takes 5 years for dividends to resume, which would put JPS at 70-75% of par.

What's the warning again?

[contrarian bull]

With 5 year wait what is value today?

For common shares here is my estimate for fannie after 5 years. I have rounded numbers for ease of calculation so you may need to add/subtract several bucks:

retained earnings = $100b = $100/share
earnings of $10b/year with PE of 8 = $80B = $80/share

Total common share value - $180

80% Dilution from warrants = $36
50% dilution from issuing additional stock = $18/share


Preferred assuming $25 par:

time value of money = 5% per year
compounded for 5 years = 25%
$25 * .75 = $18.75 value when paid off

Expected rate of return = 5%
compounded for 5 years = 25%
$18.75 * .75 = current value of $14/share

This makes common shares look like a better value since the common upside is 5x while the preferred upside is only 3x. I didn't adjust for the time value of common shares because the market may not wait 5 years to start pushing the share price up - maybe I should have? If I did then both common and preferred would have similar upside.

YMMV

Calabria launches a last warning to the JPS holders. 5 more years of Conservatorship means that FnF need 5 more years retaining earnings, around $140 billion together. Along with the funds owed by the Treausry so far (between $99 billion of SPS overpayments and $147 billion if we add other amounts due, like the TCCA fees) it means that there will be enough capital in 5 years' time to redeem the $33 billion worth of JPS outstanding. Two important things: If this is made public, the common stocks surge to a valuation of PER 13 times, while the JPS would trade as a discount note. Just apply a 5 yr discount rate to their par-value + the stock overhang + hedge funds' playground (around 40% off their par-value on day one). Secondly, the 5-year Conservatorship can be switched for a 5-year Capital Restoration Plan, like the one approved by the FHFA for the FHLBanks, so that FnF are freed from the Conservatorship stigma. Read #Fanniegate hashtag for more detail.