re "If I'd held ..."
If I'd held onto em, I'd be looking at 600 shares today (about $52,000) for about a $1,800 investment...ah well...
The biggest money I ever "lost" was "lost" selling to take a profit when the original reasons to buy were still good. I've lost more not being long at the right time than I ever lost being long at the wrong time (as an absolute number; as a percentage, too, even though I once lost 100% holding a bank stock that went into the toilet prior to a buyout ... I've easily made over 100% being long and missed much more than 100% not being in a stock I sold (early) at a profit).
One thing I keep noticing is that the stocks whose stories are really good are much better (for me, since I can't time my way out of a paper bag) held than traded. I am a lot more comfortable investing for the long run than sweating daily (or hour by hour) looking to trade shares.
My shares of AAPL are almost all less than a year held, but that doesn't mean I missed the whole run; much of the recent buys were re-buys after a late-2005 call was exercised (some with a basis from pre-split prices over 100, giving a basis of about 26). However, I did miss some of the run, and didn't get the 6x return I'd have had if I'd just held steady.
I have a relative who took a course in "trading" and, following its guidelines, sold AAPL in the high 60s earlier this year after hearing my lecture on investing vs. trading. Silly person.
Take care,
--Tex.
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