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lightrock

07/11/19 1:25 AM

#23245 RE: tarius729 #23244

Hard to say

It is easy to play what-if statistics, not really knowing certain things for sure.

I think they will have to consider it, but also it weighs heavily if it is close to 298 to let it run to the solid completion.

I suppose if we have an overwhelming majority, so to speak, and the SOC cannot possibly catch up to the performance of the test group...

That is possible.

But, they did not do that last time, so we were in some kind of grey area the last time.

Because of that it is a tough call. Things were not overwhelmingly clear yet, somehow or another.

So if you take that grain of salt and apply it to my last message regarding the 52% thing, pretty sure our numbers are slightly off and also pretty sure the response rate to injection is at least 60% and probably 70% and within that larger test group for that message then, there is fuzziness on exactly how effective things are being when.

Passing June was a big deal in this regard. I AM pretty sure that 14 events of differential appeared because 1) they said continue last time which means 10% is possible and 2) therefore things are tracking in that regard with monte carlo characterization.

So if that characterization is right, then it is possible to be by now approaching 20% effectiveness even though I am holding the reins back and super conservatively we can also be down right at 10%.

If we are at 20% effectiveness by the next time then I think they will probably call it a day because how long do you wait before starting to treat people for real, another year ?