Replies to post #18011 on Global Diamond Exchange, Inc. (GBDX)

[LCLiving]

MSEED, Great post and exactly what I thought. I don't like calling others out but agree with everything you said. Best of luck to you and all of us holding GBDX.

[SPARK]

Good post..ya gotta wonder bout people's agendas..

[cabel]

Great post MSEED,... Much appreciated!

I'd like to follow with my own simple analysis of the possible price range we might expect:

Conservative potential revenue :

$24,000,000 next 12 months or an average of $2,000,000 per month (very conservative)

I read on the internet site below the profit margin for wholesale diamonds can be 50%, so I will use a slightly more conservative margin of 40%.

http://www.diamants-infos.com/en/rough/index.php?rub=rough_diamond_prices#pricing

I will use 400 million shares fully diluted, thinking they might issue another 13 million or so.

$24,0000,000 (12 mths revenue) * 40% (profit margins) = $9,600,000 of earnings per year .

$9,600,000 (earnings per year) / 400,000,000 (number of shares) = $0.024 (earnings per share)

$0.024 eps * 10 (industry multiple) = .24 (share price)
$0.024 eps * 15 (industry multiple) = .36 (share price)
$0.024 eps * 20 (industry multiple) = .48 (share price)


Even if you half the expected revenue to $12 million or $1 million per month, you end up with $0.12 (8 bagger from .015)

Even if you double the number of shares outstanding to 800 million, you end up with $0.12 (8 bagger from .015)

Even if you half the profit margin to 20%, you end up with $0.12 (8 bagger from .015)

Even if you half the revenue to $12 million AND you double the number of shares to 800 million, you end up with $0.06 (4 bagger from .015)

Even if you half the revenue to $12 million AND you double the number of shares to 800 million, AND half the profit margin to 20%, you end up with $0.03 (2 bagger from .015)


So if the company announces sales of $10 million just for November & December of 2006, they will only have to sell another $14 million for the next 10 months to arrive at abouve figures or $1.4 million per month. This seems very doable for the highly touted Russian diamonds.


This analysis ignores any other sales that has been rumored they have.

[Lindy]

excellent DD MSEED, esp to the net profit. Profits from OUR source, Russsia, I personally believe are higher than quoted on the board so far. MSEED's post is a keeper!!

[RonnieD]

$2800 x 698 = over $1.95 MM
if so, 1 million could be NET income on a 100% sales markup after cost.


Most important is the bs posts of what people think the value is of the shipment. 698 carats @ +-$2800 a carat for rough cut; and $4300 a carat for finished stones is more accurate.
Net profit increases with smaller stones per volume basis