Replies to post #59156 on Value Microcaps Motherboard

[wadegarret]

thanks southacresdave

I try real hard to value companies accuratley going forward 6 months- 1 year. Thing is, once I give a stock a target price based on my current valuation, I don't like to trade it. I mean, I feel that's gambling- kind of going against my own convictions about my valuation analysis and fair value. It has turned out lately that many of the stocks I've been playing do get short term pops after I tout it, but one never knows the road a stock will take on its way to fair value.

For example on TCHC, I had my target price at $28-$30( when the stock was $18) after they gave guidence of $4-$5 for 2007 in the beginning of October. Along the way the stock made many a few turns, but it did eventually get to my $28 target, and I sold. I feel HSOA should be recievaing a 15 PE based on the $.60 guided for 2006, and I probably won't sell till it gets to around $9 or right before earnings. With GACF, I feel strongly the stock is worth around $1.75- $2.00, and won't sell till then, or just before next earnings. Thing is dave, there will likely be many twists and turns even if HSOA and GACF do get to my target price before earnings, but it becomes gambling to try and time the ups and downs along the way. I will say this though- as the market gets tougher, PEs are compressed and valution analysis must change to meet the changing environment. Of course, that's always the challenge- to properly value a stock regardless of the market your in. Wade