Replies to post #22511 on Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[rogue2]

Fosco,

I have not tried to compute a date for 298. My idea was to model SOC as well as possible and knowing 298 is the total number of events, derive MK numbers. What do you think about adjusting "a" and "b" to get the best fit for the two points you mentioned? Very difficult since we don't know if they came from SOC or MK either. Also I worry about the accuracy of those data points. Are we sure of the sources?

I read your interview. Thanks for sharing. I quickly ran 15% dropout with "cvm" numbers and it basically delays and stretches the "S" rise from 0..100% success. About an 8 month delay. "Cvm" numbers are still ok at this dropout rate, about 95% success. It plays havoc with the "taiwan" curve, which drops back to only 10% prob of success.

Here is an important point about dropout though: assuming dropouts are evenly distributed between SOC and MK, dropouts do nothing to change the effectiveness of multikine. It only delays the underlying reality. If we find ourselves here a year from now still without 298 events, I will strongly be suspecting high dropout even before assuming a super-improved SOC. Do you agree?

Rogue2