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Replies to post #65107 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
06/15/19 8:35 AM
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 14, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 779666 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. At present, this market has been declining for 2 months. This price action here in June is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 729222 intraday yet it remains trading back above that previous low of 745314 implying near-term strength.
Up to now, the market remains while the long-term trend is bullish.
During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have had a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The last high was made during 2018. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 857235 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 565602 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
A possible change in trend appears due come July in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during May. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, thus far, this market has already broken that previous low established at 744823. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 744823 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 744823 closing yesterday at 779666. We now need to close below 722514 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
Critical support still underlies this market at 690106 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 months. The previous low of 619017 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level. The previous high made during April on the Monthly level at 817608 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
AI
