Replies to post #21917 on Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[sab63090]

@Fosco

Always appreciate your hard work and updates on SOC comparisons and especially your bottomline view; seems as though we are above 10% now and hopefully much better by the end of the month and July to October, which I think is your best guess.

I'm not sure that Geert would wait for 3-4 months to report this to shareholders, just a guarded wording that the result is in and needs to be verified is what I would like to hear, no 8K but possibly just a Shareholder's Letter.

This improvement in price....and....volume is a good thing; we've basically surpassed the last 4 days of downthrusts; surpassing 5 is next and then the 50 day (5.60) would be sweet!

We have finally broken the sharp downtrend line, also nice.

[rogue2]

Fosco,

The problem with the existing spreadsheet models are: 1) they don't take life expectation variance into account (SOC N~=400 patients), and 2) they assume that a 10% improvement means that the for each time period (row in spreadsheet) exactly 10% improvement occurs.

I am not finished but the major factors are: 1) the assumed SOC curve, 2) the variance of lifetime expectation and 3) the dropout rate (which does not change MK effectiveness, but does delay study end date.

I will update as I get comprehensive results compiled. Every day we hear no news is still a good thing.
Rogue2