Replies to post #2233 on Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)

[pete807]

Glad already retired and will ride to the sale. Your very realistic expectations are conservative for sure with AVITA! Thanks!
JMO
-pete

[Fmello]

I'm not say that I don't trust you Tdeck, but the company (and all of us here) knows that we have a winning lottery ticket with ReCell. There's a section in that Blackcrane PDF that stands out to me:

Case Study of Previous Medical Device Launches

When compared with prior successful medical device launches, we believe RECELL will track a similar ramp. Based on market research, the biggest hurdles for a new medical device in the hospital are independent product evaluations and approval through the value analysis committee (VAC). Although it will take 20-26 months for RECELL to reach full adoption, robust quarter-over-quarter growth seems likely. The fact that 26 of the 134 burn centers have already ordered product only four months into the launch is a phenomenal accomplishment.

Those companies that are charted have 4x growth or more over 3 years (personally, I hope we grow like the NRVO chart on the right). Using those charts above as a guide, at a minimum, I'd prefer that the stock get to $28+ before Avita even considers being bought out by a big company. Now, I'm not saying that I don't ever want Avita to be bought out, I'd just like it to happen after 3-5+ years. Let that stew finish cooking before we eat it.

[melody432]

Main reason I didn't sell at 7.50, would have put me in the 37% tax bracket. Hoping they don't sell until after this fall when almost all my shares will be long term. Will sell a little end of year to try to stay at 15%. But most you pay is 20%, 2/3 of what I'd pay short term.
And you are correct about long term investments. I could have more of this, but don't touch my JNJ, Colgate, Berkshire and some others. Done well over many years there.
My son is 24, soon as he got his 1st job after college he opened a 401k and bought those 3 and a couple techs he liked. He has maxed his contributions past 2 years, will retire a lot younger than me.
If you are young your most valuable asset is time. I didn't really get started until my late 30's. Start as early as you can with whatever you can.