Replies to post #21598 on Velocityshares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ)

[researcher59]

Winter spikes occur when temperatures are below average and NG is in short supply as happened last winter, but it's unpredictable. What's clear is that the overall trend is down .... here's the 3 year history of ups and downs -

 
 Trend Start  Price         Trend End     Price      Gain/Loss %   Days in Trend 
  
 01/07/16      680           01/06/16      542.5         -20.2%        2 
 01/12/16      532.5         01/08/16      740            39%          3 
 01/08/16      740           01/20/16      412.5         -44.3%        8 
 01/20/16      412.5         01/29/16      562.5          36.4%        8 
 01/29/16      562.5         02/04/16      327.5         -41.8%        5 
 02/12/16      325           02/08/16      440            35.4%        5 
 02/08/16      440           03/03/16      167.5         -61.9%        18 
 03/03/16      167.5         04/22/16      319.7          90.9%        36 
 04/22/16      319.7         05/19/16      200           -37.4%        20 
 05/19/16      200           07/01/16      501.83         150.9%       31 
 07/01/16      501.83        07/21/16      328.9         -34.5%        14 
 08/09/16      318.4         07/29/16      448.4          40.8%        8 
 07/29/16      448.4         08/11/16      292.8         -34.7%        10 
 08/11/16      292.8         10/13/16      548.9          87.5%        45 
 10/13/16      548.9         11/09/16      196.4         -64.2%        20 
 11/09/16      196.4         12/09/16      496.8          153%         22 
 12/09/16      496.8         12/20/16      323.3         -34.9%        8 
 12/20/16      323.3         12/28/16      524.9          62.4%        6 
 12/28/16      524.9         01/09/17      248           -52.8%        8 
 01/31/17      243.45        01/26/17      345.8          42%          4 
 01/26/17      345.8         02/27/17      136.6         -60.5%        22 
 02/27/17      136.6         04/06/17      235.3          72.3%        29 
 04/06/17      235.3         07/05/17      112           -52.4%        62 
 08/01/17      102.2         07/20/17      146            42.9%        9 
 07/20/17      146           11/01/17      80.8          -44.7%        74 
 11/01/17      80.8          11/13/17      114.9          42.2%        9 
 11/13/17      114.9         11/24/17      76            -33.9%        9 
 12/05/17      72.4          11/29/17      101.4          40.1%        5 
 11/29/17      101.4         12/21/17      49.72         -51%          17 
 12/21/17      49.72         01/30/18      105.66         112.5%       26 
 01/30/18      105.66        02/12/18      50.81         -51.9%        10 
 07/19/18      50.78         11/14/18      260.23         412.5%       84 
 11/14/18      260.23        11/15/18      105.1         -59.6%        2 
 11/15/18      105.1         11/19/18      193.99         84.6%        3 
 11/19/18      193.99        11/20/18      132.06        -31.9%        2 
 11/20/18      132.06        11/21/18      187.77         42.2%        2 
 11/21/18      187.77        11/26/18      122.59        -34.7%        3 
 11/26/18      122.59        11/28/18      179.98         46.8%        3 
 11/28/18      179.98        01/03/19      36.61         -79.7%        24 
 01/03/19      36.61         01/16/19      65.44          78.7%        10 
 01/16/19      65.44         02/07/19      26.85         -59%          16 
 04/15/19      26.34         03/05/19      37.45          42.2%        30 
 03/05/19      37.45         04/25/19      21.92         -41.5%        37 
  
 20190513      25.66 
 
                            

[fitzwell11]

Many of us lost a nice chunk of change in the winter of 2015-2016 trying to play that game. There are no guarantees with winter as milder winters and large builds can send NG into the low $2s, even $1s

[DrHarleyboy]

NG is so plentiful right now I would be short this all day; NG prices are near historic lows and our production capabilities are on increasing. Pennsylvania is currently only 2nd to Texas in production, NG prices will continue to trend lower.

At over 18 Bcf/d, Pennsylvania now yields over 20% of all U.S. gas, only behind Texas' 22 Bcf/d. In the 10 years since a shale revolution took flight in its Marcellus play, Pennsylvania's gas output has exploded 32-fold.

Over that time, Pennsylvania has been responsible for 6 Tcf of the entire nation's 11.6 Tcf of new gas supply. With so much gas being produced and transacted in the region, some have even suggested that Dominion South hub 40 miles northeast of Pittsburgh should become the new benchmark for U.S. gas prices, taking over for Henry Hub in Louisiana.


For its own part, with massive low cost local supply, Pennsylvania has been turning more to natural gas to meet energy demand.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2019/03/21/pennsylvania-as-the-new-natural-gas-giant/#78a55ed1636c