PPS post merger is always difficult to predict. As we saw, VYST ran to .158 back in February and from the filings we learn the O/S was roughly the same then as it is now. From the Twitter "Outstanding Shares Update. Balance as of today same as posted in the prior 10K, plus an additional 666,667 shares were issues at .15 for a total of $100,000 USD. This was a straight equity purchase no conversion features or warrants associated with the transaction."
That being said, the recent decline is due to the time delay and the lower price has flippers leave and weak hands fold. We are hitting a massive support right now, a support (.04) that was hit March 1 following the first initial skyrocketing and rebounded to .09 on March 5, showing how quick VYST moves.
Equity investors have bought in at .15 and are clearly expecting a much higher pps as they bank on their return.
From my understanding the O/S will be lower than we think and definitively lower than the last Fins show. "Many questions on the buyback; we were able to do a small amount (in relation to 250M planned buyback), in Q1. We are looking at investment banking relationships in the next month & we believe they will be able to perform this task for us." Once a formal arrangement is made, (I understand they are talking to JP Morgan), this guy will really fly. Plus Rotmans tens of millions will be free to use for buyback.
Right now, Rotmans makes $35M a year on a 19% Net Profit Margin and has a warehouse of 344,000 sq feet loaded with inventory. (I expect past years to be millions more as $35 shows decline in B&M; outside sources previously listed Rotmans in the $50-$100M category... https://www.manta.com/c/mtkzhz5/rotmans-furniture) Most likely the inventory and assets on hand from past sales with be worth tens of millions. Additionally, the combined company will allow Rotman's to save taxes to the tune of $31.3M in Tax NOL's. A stickied post used these numbers to value Rotman's at $5-$7..granted o/s was 250M so adjusted $1.25-$1.75).
My calculation will be consider all of these factors as well as the numbers provided by the 10k. However, trading is rarely rational and I expect serious ballooning past book value.
Rotman's has explained they are NASDAQ minded and desire to uplist in the ST. In addition to the merger announcement, I expect many more details to be announced over a steady parade of PRs. I am particularly interested in FEC news, vytex news as well as buyback news. These releases will be new to the market and will create the buying frenzy to drive the price past expectations.
The Play: On finalized Merger, stock will be gapped past .15 and continue to run past $1 towards $2. From there I expect PR's to increase market expectations and appetites over the following month. It's not just what Rotmans has and provides but the future provided by Vytex and FEC. This delay has has given their deals time to take shape and become finalized into POs, creating a perfect storm. Also, these deals are not public information and their release will heighten expectations. I am weary of putting a number on VYST as I do not know what is to come but my expectations are leaning towards multiple dollars.