Replies to post #154770 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[ValueInvestor01]

Irrational behavior. Buffett has been lucky all his life and doesn't know it

There are lots of interviews out there with him talking about his luck.

Here is one of his speech where he talks about it

https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-on-the-ovarian-lottery-2013-12

The US is a great system, turns out $50,000 GDP per capita, 6 times the amount when I was born in just one lifetime. But not knowing what slip you get, you want a system that once it produces output, you don't want anyone to be left behind. You want to incentivize the top performers, don't want equality in results, but do want something that those who get the bad tickets still have a decent life. You also don't want fear in people's minds — fear of lack of money in old age, fear of cost of health care. I call this the "Ovarian Lottery."

My sisters didn't get the same ticket. Expectations for them were that they would marry well, or if they work, would work as a nurse, teacher, etc. If you are designing the world knowing 50/50 male or female, you don't want this type of world for women — you could get female. Design your world this way; this should be your philosophy.

https://qz.com/898048/trumps-immigrant-travel-ban-warren-buffett-reminds-americans-that-they-simply-had-the-good-luck-of-winning-the-ovarian-lottery-to-be-born-in-the-us/

“This country has been blessed by immigrants,” Warren Buffett said of the US, reminding his fellow citizens that for many, being American is merely an accident of birth—the result of winning the “ovarian lottery.”

Taking it one step further, he calculated his odds of his being born an American male at 80-to-1.

“I was born lucky,” the billionaire investor said at a joint appearance with Bill Gates in New York at Columbia University, where Buffett when to business school, on Jan. 27.

And for surfer44's post,

Warren Buffet will always place greater emphasis on the management rather than the market price. If the market price is collapsing while the management and fundamentals are still intact, then it is a good sign. But SIAF has failed on the former, they never had good management.