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05/11/19 12:09 PM
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. May 10, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6166 and is trading up about 35% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. At present, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 4 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 6004 yet it is trading below last month's close of 6391.
At the moment, the market remains neutral on the short-term levels of both momentum and trend on our indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 136% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8171 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4051 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
A possible change in trend appears due come July in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 6660 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 6013 closing yesterday at 6166. We now need to close beneath 6013 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4290 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 months. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5452 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during October 2018 on the Monthly level at 7690 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. However, we still remain below key resistance 7527 on a closing basis.
