The 64 million dollar question blinko.
I have long been shouting on this board that investors have not been valuing the IP and tech properly. All they seem to want to see is revenue and profit on the books before they will tally the income, measured to the penny, and hold their breath while they hit the buy button. And there are many here that will never buy despite what any numbers might show.
But I have come to believe that SGLB for the most part doesn't have investors. The company has traders that dabble at or flip shares.
I believe it will be a completely new, more savvy, group of investors moving into SGLB that will properly value the tech and IP.
When studying SaaS companies in general, the average multiples are about 15x. More than a handful of them have much higher multiples based mostly upon both their rate of growth, and the extent of the possible playing field for them.
My feeling is that SGLB should be priced at $100-150 million right now, just based upon the position of PR3D in the industry. No other IPQA tech is even close to having the high quality exposure to the industry, with the degree of intensity with which PR3D has been subjected. It should be around $200 million when the really big hitter patents are issued. The patents are rapidly digging a big mote around IPQA. All other players will essentially have to go through SGLB to even continue to play in the space. When the first sales come in, then you can determine the significance of the buyer. If sales are with any of the big dogs, then it is reasonable to expect that SGLB will take a significant percentage of the IPQA demand within the metal AM industry. At that point the company should be valued around $280-350 million. With a continuing ramp of new high quality sales we should be around $450 million.
But it will never happen with the current crop of traders in SGLB. I expect savvy investors will move in, move the share price up rapidly and unexpectedly, thereby moving the cost of a meaningful position out of reach for current SGLB followers. The current followers will have had the opportunity taken from them. Their long, hard earned, superior knowledge of SGLB, will have been squandered forever.
And the posters that blast this view are among the very ones who will probably never, ever, buy SGLB shares.
All the best,
Silversmith
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