I look at the valuations a bit differently. Truth is we're viewed as a binary outcome later this summer so no value is placed on anything besides alzheimer's. Also the truth is if we're successful at the same rate ast the last trial, those that own shares at this price won't even have to care what we'll eventually be valued because its astronomical. Also true is if we're unsuccessful valuation will matter little as well as we'll have lost our financial bets.
IMO the market is currently viewing us as the 1% shot that the plaque drugs have produced. My guess is the closer we get, the more likely we'll move towards the 250 million market cap we saw last time which IMO is still only giving us roughly a 10% chance of success. 90%+ level success could EVENTUALLY but not right off the bat after approval, put us in the 5 billion range for AD alone. What the odds of trial success is IMO verses what I'm willing to gamble are two different things. While I think the trial will be successful, I won't gamble anything I can't afford to lose... as tempting as billions in valuations would be.
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