Replies to post #19238 on Legacy Thread

[basserdan]

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims: 192K actual vs 197K (revised) prior week
4-week Moving Average 201K vs 207K prior


8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook: 8.5 actual vs 13.7 prior
Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.


8:30 Retail Sales:
Retail Sales - M/M change 1.6% actual vs -0.2% prior
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change 1.2% vs -0.2% (rev) prior
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change 0.9% actual vs -0.7% (rev) prior
Control Group – M/M change 1.0% -0.3% (rev) prior

[basserdan]

9:45a PMI Composite Flash
Composite – Level 52.8 actual vs 54.3 prior
Manufacturing – Level 52.4 actual vs 52.5 prior
Services — Level 52.9 actual vs 54.8 prior
Highlights
Of all the anecdotal reports on U.S. business, those from Markit Economics have consistently been showing the least strength of any. That said, the flash PMI results for April are not a source of optimism.
Weakness is where strength used to be centered in this report, and that's in services where growth apparently is slowing abruptly this month, at a diffusion index of 52.9 which is well under Econoday's 55.0 consensus though still within the consensus range. This is the lowest score since March 2017 and reflects the slowest rate of order growth in two years.
Services make up the bulk of U.S. economic activity and is reflected in its oversized weighting for the composite which comes in so far this month at 52.8. This is slowest showing since September 2016.
The good news in today's results is that Markit's manufacturing sample is not reporting greater deterioration in growth, holding roughly steady at but still subdued at 52.4. This sample reports improvement in orders as well as output though slowing growth in employment as well as inventories of raw materials.
Inflation measures not surprisingly eased in today's report, one that offers a limited offset to this morning's upbeat results for retail sales and jobless claims.

Definition
The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector output by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. The flash data are released around 10 days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 85 percent of the full survey sample. Results are synthesized into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster output is growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The data are produced by Markit.


10:00a Business Inventories M/M change 0.3% actual vs 0.8% prior
Definition
Business inventories are the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity.


10:00a Leading Indicators M/M change 0.4% vs 0.2% prior
Definition
The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.


10:30a EIA Natural Gas Inventory weekly change 92bcf actual vs 25bcf prior