7:30a Challenger Job-Cut Report - Announced Layoffs: 60,587 actual vs 76,835 prior month
Highlights
In what has yet to lead to a comparable rise in actual jobless claims, the number of lay-off announcements has clearly shifted higher over the last half year. March announcements totaled 60,587 which is down from February's outsized 76,835 but still higher than the fourth-quarter monthly average of 57,534 and the third-quarter's 40,293. Layoff announcements totaled 190,140 in the fourth quarter, this is up from 172,601 and 120,879 in the prior two quarters. It is also the highest total in 4-1/2 years and the highest first-quarter total since the recession (note that Challenger data are not adjusted). The report cites concerns over an upcoming downturn as among the likely reasons for the increase.
Challenger's data point squarely at a comparable shift higher in jobless claims which did begin to move up from historic lows late last year and early this year but have since moved back lower. There's always an unknown time lag between announcements and layoffs but the risk for a rise in claims is clear. The results are also likely signaling a slowing in payroll growth ahead yet are not likely to affect expectations for tomorrow's employment report where a substantial bounce-back from a weak February is the universal call.
8:30a Initial Jobless Claims - 202K actual vs 212K prior week
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