Replies to post #7036 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[Windsock]

Remember Dan3's forecast about a year ago that 50% of AMD's processors would be 64 bits in Q2? AMD fell a little short of that forecast and sold something like 8,000 to 10,000 64 bit processors in Q2.

But not to worry, AMD is "gonna" sell tens of thousands of 64 bitters a quarter real soon according to recent forecasts. It also is forecast that AMD is going to lose money until Q4 of 2004.

[Dan3]

Re: some of your previous predictions:

Those were speculations, and clearly indicated as such. You should take an English class and learn how to interpret such phrases as "going for" and "well positioned to."

SUN is apparently looking seriously at as in hiring people dedictated to) making Opteron a big part of their business, and IBM is already shipping Opteron servers. AMD64 is outshipping Intel64 by 10 to 1 and heading for 100 to 1.

64-bit PCs, if all your old software can come along for the ride, and as long as it doesn't cost too much extra, is a pretty compelling product.

Intel had a great run, with a fairly quick, clean (if expensive) transition to 12" & .13 and managed to put a lot of pressure on AMD for quite a while. AMD was late with AMD64 and late with SOI.

But AMD is now shipping AMD64 and SOI.

Meanwhile, like all great runs, Intel's series of FAB tech successes appears to have ended rather badly as it attempted a simultaneous move to 90nm and strained silicon. The resulting FAB problems have messed up the Prescott launch, leaving things rather wide open for AMD (just as Intel had an easy time of it while AMD was struggling to launch a whole new platform on a whole new fabrication technology).

Have you noticed that overclockers are already getting 3ghz from Athlon64 with dry ice? And that 2.2ghz Athlon64 - running un-optimized 32-bit code is faster than 3.2ghz P4? Prescott's improvments are apparently limited to tlb increases and not much else making it worth one or two speed grades - about what's expected from socket 939 improvements for Athlon64.

Intel's strained silicon problems look to be limiting it to around 3.Xghz on 90nm while a 3ghz Athlon64 should be doable on 90nm - making it the speed of a 4.5ghz Prescott.

Intel's desperation was make crystal clear when it scrambled to fake the shipment of the Emergency Edition P4's - which will now be making the Prescott launch look even worse by comparison.

We'll see what happens.