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smooth2o

09/22/03 11:18 PM

#7029 RE: kpf #7027

kpf: implies price/performance and other hard factors will be dominant criteria for buying decisions

Right. That's why uP semis are not. There is far too much differentiation in products and price points for commoditization to take place. This will not happen for many, many years. The simple reason: Performance has not reached the absolute top and will not for quite some time. Until then, other applications will be found and other cost effectiveness for computational increases will be sought.

Smooth
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wbmw

09/23/03 2:04 AM

#7035 RE: kpf #7027

Klaus, your processor commoditization theory is one sided. For your scenario to be plausible, people would suddenly decide to pay less for Intel processors, but not less for AMD's. The notion that AMD already prices their processors "low enough" is not convincing. If production were to far outstrip demand, then you could essentially cut the ASPs for all vendors, not just the ones with currently higher premiums. Besides, the Pentium brand has built up far more worth than any soy bean or pork belly product ever has. In fact, some news sources have rated the Intel and Pentium brands above Pepsi and McDonalds. Interesting theory that this might not count for anything some time down the road, but if you're right, I think that time is very far off. Any collapse in microprocessor demand is going to affect AMD far more than Intel, just as it has in the past. Another blow to the company right now could easily take them out of business, even with the Hammer series of products ready for launch.