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04/06/19 8:29 AM
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 5, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6308 and is trading up about 38% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. Currently, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 6073.
Up to this moment in time, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 142% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8171 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4051 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
A possible change in trend appears due come June in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 6073 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 6073 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 6554 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 4290 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 3 months. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5123 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during October 2018 on the Monthly level at 7690 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. However, we still remain below key resistance 7527 on a closing basis.
