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basserdan

03/20/19 12:50 PM

#37224 RE: basserdan #37223


7:00a MBA Mortgage Applications:
Composite Index - W/W Change 1.6% vs 2.3% prior week
Purchase Index -- W/W Change 0.3% vs 4.0%
Refinance Index - W/W Change 4.0% vs -0.2%

Highlights
The purchase index rose 0.3 percent in the March 15 week which is on top of the prior week's 4.0 percent surge. Still, year-on-year the index is up only 1 percent.

Showing a burst of strength, one tied to declining mortgage rates, is the refinance index which, like the purchase index in the prior week, rose 4.0 percent.

Rates are at their lowest level in a year with the average 30-year conforming loan at 4.55 percent ($484,350 or less). Yet in a continuing sign that rising housing demand is lopsided toward high-end buyers, the average loan size is up for a third straight week. Housing data have been weak but declines in mortgage rates should be a welcome plus for a struggling housing sector.

Definition
The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.


10:32a U.S. distillate stockpiles down 4.1 million barrels: EIA

10:32a WTI oil futures turn higher after EIA supply data

10:32a April WTI crude up 0.9% at $59.57/bbl on Nymex vs. $58.92 before supply data

Highlights
Crude oil inventories fell by a sharp 9.6 million barrels in the March 15 week to 439.5 million, 2.6 percent above their level a year ago. Product inventories also fell, with gasoline down 4.6 million barrels to 241.5 million, 0.6 percent below their year ago level and distillates down 4.1 million barrels to 132.2 million, 0.9 percent above the level last year at this time. The crude oil draw was much larger than the decline of 2.1 million barrels reported Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute, a private industry group, which also reported smaller draws for gasoline and distillates, at 2.8 million and 1.6 million barrels respectively. WTI prices jumped about 60 cents to around $59.75 per barrel immediately following the EIA report.

Refineries ramped up to operate at 88.9 percent of their operable capacity, 1.3 percentage points above the level in the prior week. Production increased, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day for gasoline and 4.9 million barrels per day for distillates.

Crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day, up 186,000 barrels per day from the prior week. Average crude oil imports over the last 4 weeks were about 6.6 million barrels per day, 11.2 percent less than in the same period last year.

Domestic crude oil production remained stable, averaging 12. 1 million barrels per day over the last 4 weeks, 16.6 percent more than last year at this time.

Overall product demand increased, averaging 21.1 million barrels per day over the last 4 weeks, up 2.8 percent from the same period last year. But demand for the main products remained mixed, with supplied gasoline averaging 9.1 million barrels per day, down 1.4 percent from the same period last year, while supplied distillates averaged 4.2 million barrels per day, up 8.2 percent year-on-year.

Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products

basserdan

03/20/19 3:26 PM

#37225 RE: basserdan #37223


Best read from bottom up...

2:05p 10-year Treasury yield falls to lowest since Jan. 4

2:03p S&P 500 joins Nasdaq in positive territory after Fed maintains patient policy

2:02p Nasdaq flips into positive territory after Fed policy update

2:02p April gold at $1,307.60/oz in electronic trade, up from $1,301.70 Comex settlement

2:02p Gold futures move up in electronic trade after Fed statement

2:01p Nasdaq virtually unchanged at 7,719

2:01p Dow off 0.4%; S&P 500 off by 0.2%

2:01p ICE U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% at 96.241

2:01p Dollar index turns negative after Federal Reserve policy update

2:01p Stock market pares loss after Fed leaves rates unchanged, as expected

2:00p 10-year yield at 2.566%; 2-year yield at 2.419%; 30-year yield at 2.997%

2:00p Fed says it may still conduct limited sales of mortgage-related securities

2:00p Fed to reinvest MBS principal payments in range of Treasurys

2:00p Fed to continue to allow mortgage-backed securities to run off after September

2:00p FOMC still sees long-range fed funds rate rising to 2.8%, but not before 2021

2:00p Fed trims PCE inflation forecast in 2019 to 1.8% from 1.9%

2:00p Fed cuts GDP estimate for 2019 to 2.1% from 2.3%

2:00p FOMC leaves benchmark fed funds rate in 2.25%-2.5% range

2:00p Fed to start tapering balance-sheet runoff in May, ending
in September

2:00 PM FOMC Forecast
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement