Replies to post #2548 on Spectrum Pharmaceutecals Inc (SPPI)

[Tartiaboy]

I've been wondering about SPPI's market cap. Is it correct at approximately $1B?

We have high probability of Rolontis approval. I'd say 80%, just because I have a bit less confidence in SPPI's management after the BTD. The revenue numbers for Rolontis are all over the place. I see a range from $50 to $250M for 2020. No idea what peak sale might be. If we take the average at 150 x 6 = 900M x .8 =720M corrected for time I think 500M is fair.

Pozi has many hurdles and uncertainties between now and first approval, so I think it should add about $300M to the market cap until we see the first cohort read-out. We don't know if SPPI can file for BLA based on cohort 1 data even though that is what they are saying. If that read-out is strong and they file, I would double the number to $600M.

Selling the existing product line reduces MC IMO. I give no value to the cash. SPPI will burn through that.

So, I think SPPI should be valued at about $800M right now subject to big adjustment in 4th quarter when PDUFA decision is made and we get cohort 1 data.