Replies to post #11582 on CryoPort Inc (CYRX)

[hyperopia]

Although the company doesn’t provide revenue forecasts, I would like to point out that I did. And I was pretty damn close. . .

Cryoport reported quarterly revenue of 4.0M, 4.6M, 5.3M, 5.7M, and 19.6M for the year. And reported 2.1M in commercial revenue for the year.

Now here’s my post from a year ago:

hyperopia   Wednesday, 03/14/18 10:13:28 AM
Re: Rev3lation post# 11146
Post # 11149 of 11580

. . . I look at the clinical trials, animal health and reproductive as the base-line revenue, which grew about 50% overall last year. . If this continues at this rate, that alone would be $18M for 2018. If it only grows at 40% then it would be $16.8M, and if it increases to 60% it would be $19.2M. To be conservative,I think it will be at the lower end of this range - say $17M. Then the question is: how much will commercial revenue add to this baseline? I’m being conservative and currently estimating only about $2M for the year, for total revenues in 2018 of $19M. I have lowered this estimate twice; from $23M to $21M after last quarter’s conference call and then from $21M to $19M after this last call. Right now my model shows these quarterly estimates for 2018: Q1 3.52 Q2 4.31 Q3 5.23 Q4 5.9 = 18.96. This represents my conservative estimate, and I have run a range of scenarios and hope to revise this estimate upward as we get further updates throughout the year

[hyperopia]

All in all, it was a good quarter and a solid year. 40 net new trials were added this quarter, and 120 clinical trials were added for the year, for an impressive total of 357. Cryoport said they held nearly 40% of the clinical trial market in the Regenerative Medicine space, which is a good thing, because clinical trials looks to be where the bulk of their revenues will come from for the next year or two.

So, 4 MAA's were filed in Europe and 2 BLA's were filed in the United States during 2018, and we found out from some good questioning (from the B. Riley FBR analyst, Andrew D’Silva) that 5 are Cryoport clients. This is one of the few things that management offered guidance on last year and they were accurate on that. But so far, no news on when to expect approvals or when they will begin commercial sales. They now anticipate six additional BLA and MAA submissions from Cryoport’s clients in 2019. Novartis expects to increase Kymriah revenues fourfold, and Gilead is projecting sales of Yescarta to double this year, but it still looks to be a slow ramp for commercial revenues.

And contrary to a belief held by a certain poster here, (cough cough) the company said it is actively pursuing potential acquisitions. Shelton said “we'll look at software companies, we'll look at components of manufacturing that could provide strategic advantage. We'll also look at adjacencies and we talked about some of those in the past, like storage and like, again, software and other services that we think fit with our Company. So, we definitely are looking at them, but we have yet to pull the trigger.”

Don't worry CB, I think you will still have another chance to sell in the teens.