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Replies to post #65061 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
03/10/19 10:18 AM
THE ANALYTICAL POSTURE CURRENTLY AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 8, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 740814 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 663528. Currently, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. yet it is trading below last month's close of 753253.
The historical major high took place here in 2018 and we have up to now this year remained trading within last year's range in a consolidating pattern. So far we have seen a trading range of 764366 for a high and 645713 for the low. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have had a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The last high was made during 2018. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 857235 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 565602 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
A possible change in trend appears due come May in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 760269 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 760269 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 813330 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 608195 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2 Monthly sessions. The previous high made during August 2018 on the Monthly level at 813330 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 619017 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 645713 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
