Don Rumsfeld is the shrewdest person in Washington. He understands better than anyone that somebody has to be in line to take the blame when things go wrong. So far he has been willing to do so. But not much longer.
The drumbeat to get him out of the Pentagon has reached deafening proportions. Republicans and Democrats, the generals, the media, Colin Powell, Condi Rice, Andy Card, the first President Bush, and even Laura Bush all want him gone. Until now George W. Bush has resisted all of the pressure to get rid of his defense secretary. But those in the know say that the president may have reached the point where he realizes that Rumsfeld has outlived his usefulness.
Still, the president must be aware on some level that once the pugnacious, outspoken and flak-attracting Rumsfeld leaves the stage, the focus will be on the president. Whether Bush realizes it or not, this is about a scapegoat.
In the Bible, the high priest would transfer the sins of the people onto a goat, and, as it was written, "the goat shall carry all the sins of the people into a land where no one lives, and the man shall let it loose in the wilderness."
(The word for scapegoat in Hebrew means, literally, "into hell.")
Rumsfeld has seen others take on the role of scapegoat. Look what happened to Nancy Reagan. When she was first lady, she rightly realized that Donald Regan, the chief of staff, was causing her husband enormous damage. What she hadn't realized was that Regan was filling the role of scapegoat for the president. When Don Regan was finally fired, Nancy herself was made the scapegoat. She then took the brunt of criticism for the errors of her husband's administration.
It is hard for the American people to turn completely against the president. It seems tantamount to patricide. We're much more comfortable being able to blame someone else for the president's mistakes. Laura Bush will never be the scapegoat. For now, it's Rumsfeld.
Vice President Cheney is not eager to replace him. And he would never fire Rumsfeld, who was his mentor and who hired him for three government jobs during the Ford administration, including as his deputy when Rumsfeld was chief of staff. (In fact, Cheney's Secret Service code name was "Back Seat.") In any event, Cheney is low-profile, secretive, nonconfrontational -- and presumably too experienced to allow himself to be easily made the scapegoat. But if Rumsfeld goes, the attention and criticism can be directed only to Cheney, or to Bush.
And it's improbable that Rumsfeld can last. He may not have an exit strategy for Iraq, but, old Washington hand that he is, he undoubtedly has one for himself.
I suspect that he has already told the president and Cheney that he will leave after the midterm elections, saying that the country needs new leadership to wind down the war. And he will resign to take a job in some sort of humanitarian venture, thereby creating the perception that he is a caring person who left of his own accord to devote the rest of his life to good works.
Opinion: Rumsfeld Takes the Hit Secretary of Defense Blamed for Iraq Troubles
Sally Quinn Washington Post Staff Writer Thursday, October 19, 2006; 2:00 PM
Washington Post staff writer Sally Quinn was online Thursday, Oct. 19, at 2 p.m. ET to discuss her op-ed on Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld , whom she says is often scapegoated for the Bush administration's problems in Iraq.
The transcript follows.
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Sally Quinn: Hi This is Sally Quinn. I welcome your questions and am glad to have you sign on today.
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Carrboro, N.C.: Donald Rumsfeld will serve as Secretary of Defense for as long as George W. Bush is President.
If Rumsfeld were to step aside, the new nominee's confirmation hearings would inevitably focus on the administration's failures in Iraq. Any gain from making Rumsfeld the scapegoat would be outweighed by the political cost of the hearings (particularly if the Democrats win a Senate majority next month).
As long as Bush is President, Rumsfeld will be Defense Secretary and our troops will be in Iraq.
Sally Quinn: I think it's just the opposite. Assuming the democrats win congress, it will be much easier for Bush to get a nonconfrontational Sec. of Defense confirmed. Someone like James Baker or Lee Hamilton. If Rumsfeld stays his next two years will be two years of congressional of accusations and recriminations about what went wrong in Iraq. A new Secretary will come in with a clean slate.
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New Jersey: Sally, you say "not much longer," as though resignation alone would separate Rumsfeld from the role of scapegoat. It wouldn't. True, Bush would not have Rumsfeld between himself and the Iraq situation, but that wouldn't stop the three principle groups of critics - neoconservatives, military men, and the media -Democrats already blame Bush/Cheney - from labeling the situation "Rumsfeld's mess." Look at how Bremer gets blame for disbanding the Iraq military, which was certainly a White House decision.
Right now, those three forces are poised to put the majority of the blame for Iraq on Rumsfeld. Do you think he will accept it or fight it?
Sally Quinn: As you probably realize, Rumsfeld has already passed the buck on a number of issues, like how many troops we will need in Iraq (the military's decision) and disbanding the Iraqi army. I can't imagine he'll stand for anyone assigning the blame to him on any other issue. He's a very tough infighter.
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Alexandria, Va.: Do you really think he's a scapegoat? I believe the American people are able to recognize that it is not one person in this administration who is the problem. There are several, most visibly the warmongers, Bush and Cheney.
Sally Quinn: I think he has accepted the role of scapegoat, party by his actions. He is very confrontational and pugnacious. He's in your face. Bush is above it all and Cheney is able to disappear to"undisclosed locations." So Rumsfeld has been the face of the war. This is not to say that he is not responsible. It's just to say that he has been "the man" who is out there every day on the war.
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Chicago, Ill.: I understand the pressure that has been building push Rumsfeld out. However, I can see an even bigger reason for keeping him. Should Rumsfeld leave, Bush would need to appoint another Secretary of Defense. That would open the door to a broad investigation of the actions of this Secretary of Defense to insure that the next person doesn't take the same disastrous actions. Furthermore, should the Senate leadership become Democratic, that would increase the incentive for Rumsfeld to stay ... no matter what the cost to the administration.
Could a Democratically run Senate ever call Rumsfeld to account? I doubt it only because Rumsfeld will never admit his failings. I'm not sure if it's pathology or an excellent sense of how to use the cameras to turn the tables on your opponents, but Rumsfeld will not be broken in front of the cameras. He will wrap himself in the flag and self-righteousness, lower rhetoric to demagoguery, and fight to the very end. Thus making it look like he's the victim persecution from a Democratic Senate. Even the worst of us when given a forum can turn the tables on our prosecutors.
So, I see it as unlikely Bush will fire Rumsfeld. I think he would promote him if he could. Comments.
Sally Quinn: As I said in the piece, I don't believe Bush will fire Rumsfeld. But the pressure on Bush is building every day to do so. And after the elections, assuming the democrats win big, the republicans are going to have to start focusing on the 2008 elections and they don't want the war hanging round their neck as an albatross. Rumsfeld is the face of the war. If they got somebody neutral in their I think the democrats would welcome that as much as the republicans. And if the democrats have any sense they will let it go, and not spend the next two years being divisive and hostile but try to put this behind us and figure out a way to solve the Iraq problem. Never mind that nobody has a solution at this point. I do believe that Rumsfeld has to understand that he is a short timer and that he will want to save face and get out before he is pushed out.
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Arlington, Va.: Of the names mentioned to succeed Rumsfeld, James Baker is 76, Howard Baker is 81, and Lee Hamilton is 75. Aren't there any non-military types in Congress who have the expertise and stamina to do the job?
Sally Quinn: I'm sure there are but you're looking at a situation where you need someone who is an old Washington hand, has some experience with foreign policy, is bi partisan and respected by everyone. There aren't many of those. These guys may be older but don't forget, it's only two years. And they would have to put together a team of smart, younger people as well.
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Frederick, Md.: Last night suffering from insomnia I was flipping the channels and saw the HBO Documentary on Barry Goldwater. Other than the churlish Al Franken I very much enjoyed the contributions made by everyone else - especially yours and your husband's, along with James Carville and Hillary Clinton. What a different era back then compared to the current poisonous relations between the two major political parties. Anyway I read your piece on Rumsfeld today. I would suspect that Rumsfeld will only let loose on his White House masters if he's actually sacked. Which means he's not going any where until he decides to quit on his own. Realistically, wouldn't you agree?
Sally Quinn: I think Rumsfeld will quit of his own accord. And I don't think he will ever unload on Bush and Cheney publicly.
I'm so glad you saw the Barry Goldwater documentary on HBO. I thought it was fabulous. As you saw on the documentary, Barry Goldwater was a very close friend of my parent's and actually lived with them towards the end of his term in the Senate. He was a wonderful man who would have been saddened by the lack of bipartisanship in the country and in the congress today. You are right, it is the most toxic atmosphere I have ever seen in Washington in my life. I had dinner with a group of Senators the other night and they were all commiserating about how much they missed the old days where you could disagree with somebody on the Senate floor during the day and then meet for cocktails in each other's offices after work and still be friends. I'm afraid we've seen the last of those days.
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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Robert McNamara continued to be the scapegoat for the Vietnam War for the rest of his life, which extended decades beyond the end of the Johnson administration. So why shouldn't the same happen to Rumsfeld?
Sally Quinn: That's a very good question. I think though you're looking at the big picture. If you remember, even though McNamara left to go the the World Bank (and be a humanitarian doing good works) Lyndon Johnson suffered the worst. He had to announce that he was not running for another term and spent the last days of his life in Texas in a terrible depression because of the war. It destroyed his presidency and took the attention away from so many good things he had done, like civil rights. McNamara rightfully took a lot of the blame and I'm sure that will be true for Rumsfeld as well. But in the short term, the person or people who will suffer the most from Rumsfeld's departure are Cheney and Bush.
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Minneapolis, Minn.: Did you talk to Rumsfeld for your column?
Whatever the case, do you have a sense that Rumsfeld is holding out the kind of reasoning you do today as a kind of implicit threat to Bush and Cheney in order to hang onto his job after all?
Sally Quinn: No I did not talk to Rumsfeld about this subject before I wrote it. And frankly, I really don't think he wants to hang on to the job. I think he knows what would be in store for him in the next two years and it wouldn't be pretty. I understand that his wife Joyce, who is a wonderful woman, would also like to see this chapter come to an end.
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Colorado: Honestly, do you think anyone outside of the corps of True Believers would want to catch this particular anchor for this particular president? As long as Cheney's around, even the best-intentioned and most devoted public servant is just sacrificing whatever reputation he (or she) has by taking over the Rumsfeld-Iraq Pentagon, don't you think?
Sally Quinn: I think that there are a lot of people who really love this country and are in terrible despair about the quagmire in Iraq, not to mention the problems with Afghanistan and the looming threats in Iran and North Korea, Somalia, the middle east and just about everywhere that they would be eager to serve their country in any way they could. Anybody who took over the job, assuming it is somebody who is known as bipartisan would come in with enormous good will. There would be a sense of relief that there would be an effort to get us out of this mess by someone who is not tainted with the mistakes of the past. So I think it would be done by somebody, willing , not as much to save the President as to save the country.
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Boston, Mass.: I may be one of the only ones who feels this way, but I see Rumsfeld as akin to Churchill, and if I had may way, he'd be on Mt Rushmore. No lie. This guy does not need the job, is obviously not in it for the money, is fighting with an entrenched bureaucracy (the Pentagon) that makes General Motors look like early adopters - hmm, like Churchill in the '30s.
My question: what percentage of the folks at the Pentagon are secretly or quietly in his camp?
Sally Quinn: I think you are in the minority. If you read Bob Woodward's amazing book, State of Denial, you will see that there are very few people in the Pentagon who are very supportive of Rumsfeld these days.
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New Jersey: Sally, I'll rephrase my question - you say that Rumsfeld will likely never unload on Bush/Cheney. But what if they are happily leaving him to assume the blame for Iraq? That is, if they are most willing to have Iraq labeled "Rumsfeld's Folly." How will Rumsfeld bear that without unloading on Bush/Cheney?
Sally Quinn: What I mean is that I don't believe he will ever write a tell all book. For one thing, so many decisions about the war have been his so he has to take responsibility for a lot of the mistakes that have been made. But there are other ways to get your side of the story out. Like talking to Bob, Woodward, for instance.
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Colorado: Do you really think that your social relationships with these people--dinner with Senators, Joyce is a wonderful woman, etc--does not affect your analysis?
For me, Rumsfeld will always be the man who said "You go to war with the army you have, not with the army you wish you had." He is a thoroughly despicable human being.
Sally Quinn: That's a very good question and one that all journalists face in Washington , especially if you have been around for years and years as my husband and I have. All I can tell you is that you really have to try to maintain a sense of objectivity, understanding that total objectivity is never possible in real life. There are people you like and people you don't like and those you agree with and those you don't. But if I feel I cannot be objective then I simply don't write about someone and that has happened many times. One of the ways you learn what's really going on in Washington is by getting to know the people in power on a social basis and actually listening to them and hearing their side of the story, whether you are a republican or a democrat. I have many friends who would say to me, "How can you talk to those awful people?" Yet these same friends are the ones who say how stupid it is of the Bush administration not to talk to Iran and North Korea or Syria. I think you have to talk to everyone and get to know them. That certainly helps me as a journalist really understand how things work in this city.
I have known the Rumsfeld's for over thirty years and you can't help knowing so many people in government when you all live here, your children go to the same schools, you go to the same birthday parties and anniversaries, wedding and christenings. But as I said, if you can't be objective, if you think you can't do your job, then you have to be honest about that and say so.
Do I think Don Rumsfeld has done a great job with Iraq? No. Do I agree with everything he has done? Of course not. Do I think he is a despicable person? I certainly do not.
One of the interesting things about living in Washington is that you learn that nothing is black and white. It's a all a series of subtle shadings of grey. Does that answer your question?
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Munich, Germany: Under the name of scapegoat, I envision someone who suffers under the brunt of criticism and unpopularity.
But with Rumsfeld I have the opposite impression. He has gone from strength to strength in enlarging his portfolio to include activities that were once in the domain of the CIA, without relinquishing any authority to Negroponte.
In short, he's won almost every turf war that he's engaged in.
How does this make Rumsfeld a scapegoat?
Sally Quinn: Well, I think you just heard the last reader say that Rumsfeld is despicable. I think that when you have a huge number of people thinking that you are the scapegoat. The scapegoat is not the only person who is wrong. The scapegoat is the one carrying the sins of the people into the wilderness. He's just being taking the brunt of the criticism for the war, so that Cheney and Bush have been spared somewhat.
You're right, Rumsfeld is an incredible infighter and has won a lot of battles. He may suffer, too, from being the author of many mistaken decisions. You are also right that the Pentagon has certainly enlarged it's portfolio for intelligence which , as I'm sure you know, is a matter of contention at the highest levels of the intelligence community. Certainly the CIA is not happy about it and it has created a challenge for Negroponte to bring all of the agencies under the same umbrella. But in the end, I think Rumsfeld will suffer the most from having won so many turf wars if they don't turn out to be successful
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New York, N.Y.: Your discussion of Rumsfeld as a scapegoat seems off the mark, in that a scapegoat bears the sins of others into the wilderness. The goat isn't guilty of any sin. But Rumsfeld is being blamed for a lot of things that actually are his responsibility, and in that sense he isn't a scapegoat at all. The nonexistent planning for the invasion of Iraq's aftermath is properly to be laid at the feet of the defense secretary, a man who could only shrug and say, "Stuff happens."
He isn't bearing the guilt of others; he is being blamed for his own. And rightly so.
Sally Quinn: You are right about that. I guess you could say that he isn't a genuine scapegoat in the sense that the goat is not guilty of any sins. But what I'm getting at here is that ultimately the President is responsible for the decisions made, as is the Vice President. It is actually Bush's war. Bush makes the final decisions. Yet it is being called Rumsfeld's war. That's all I mean. But you have a good point.
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Cambridge, Mass.: Assuming Rumsfeld is gone, will that free Bush to genuinely change course in Iraq. It seems Rumsfeld primary role of late has been impediment-in-chief, though it makes sense, given that a repudiation of the Iraq strategy is a repudiation of Rumsfeld. But with Rumsfeld out of the way, that wouldn't be an issue, right?
Sally Quinn: With Rumsfeld out of the way, it would be an opportunity for Bush to change directions, led by his new secretary of defense. He wouldn't call it Rumsfeld's war but it would be by implication. That would have to be the strategy in order for Bush not to have to take the blame. He could then say he is rethinking the strategy. Remember Sen. John Warner has already called for a rethinking of the strategy within the next few months. That would give Bush the opportunity to say that he has listened to his fellow republicans and has decided to wind down the war or whatever and it can be his strategy and not Rumsfelds. It's all a matter of perception here. And spin.
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Frederick, Md.: Ms. Quinn,
I am very grateful to you for encouraging the civility so lacking in our public discussions. Self-awareness and the ability to recognize mistakes and errors in one's thinking are essential to progress of all kinds. Shutting yourself off from other opinions, demonizing other points of view, is ultimately stifling. Civil discourse encourages constant self-assessment and clearer thinking.
Sally Quinn: Amen. I just don't understand the reasoning behind not talking to people who differ from you. And I must say that so many people in this administration are really guilty of just that. I have never seen such a closed administration, one in which there is no interest in hearing what anyone outside of the closed circle has to say. They don't want dissenting views and that has been a huge party of what has gone wrong in this administration. It's very much a no compromise, our way or the highway attitude that prevails in this White House. I think it is extremely unproductive and not healthy for the country. They also have the same attitude toward our allies and those in the rest of the world. I don't think it has done the country any good. Or them, for that matter.
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Still on active duty: Our family has been associated with the Army for nearly twenty years so we pay very close attention to statements by the commanders and the secretary. It seems the retired commanders are beginning to have an impact on the public's and Congress' perception of Rumsfeld. Is there in your opinion a not-so-subtle whisper campaign going on? Thanks for your insights.
Sally Quinn: I'm an army brat and grew up on army posts around the world. My father was stationed at the Pentagon many times, including when McNamara was there. I know a lot of military people I have never seen a whispering campaign that is so unsubtle as the one that is going on now. In fact, you might call it a shouting campaign. Read Bob Woodward's book and Tom Rick's book, fiasco if you want to now more about the campaign. It will curl your hair.
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Pittsburgh, Pa.: The president has said that troops will remain in Iraq until after he has left office. Does that enable him to argue that he wasn't the one that lost Iraq? Is that important to him as he sets up his "legacy?"
Sally Quinn: I think that's part of it. He'll hand the war over to someone else and it will be their problem to find a solution. But realistically, it seems improbable that we could have all of our troops out in two years unless the situation becomes so hopeless that there is no alternative. It certainly looks as if we are heading in that direction.
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Dunkirk, Md.: I agree the Rumsfeld is the scape goat but won't all three go down together in history. Rumsfeld did not make the decision to go to war, Bush did. Cheney and Rumsfeld may have pushed how to fight the war but Bush agreed to/with their decision/recommendations.
Sally Quinn: Yes, I agree with you. I think in terms of who's war it is, Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld will be surgically attached in history. But in the end, it's Bush's legacy.
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Warrenton, Va.: "It's all a series of shades of gray," you wrote about Washington and its power players. What defeats and saddens me, there are no shades of gray in combat. Men and women die, have died in Iraq, for no certain purpose, while those who committed them there fuss around with subtle shades of gray. Does Rumsfeld feel he bears any responsibility for the deaths of so many? Probably not. But then who is accountable here? No one?
Sally Quinn: You are right. There are no subtle shades of grey when your child has been killed in a war you don't understand and which seems to be fought for no reason. I can only say that I can't imagine how Rumsfeld or any human being can not feel responsible for the deaths of so many. I do know though, having been a daughter of a military man who fought in two wars, that one does rationalize that the war is being fought for a good reason, otherwise you couldn't fight it. In the end, those who are responsible for the war, especially if it doesn't succeed, will bear the responsibility for the deaths of all of those people and they will have to live with that.
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Maryland: In these days of partisan politics, thank you for pointing out how most things are not black and white. I dislike Rumsfeld's policies, manner of conducting the war and demeanor. However, I heard from several people at the Pentagon on 9/11 that he was personally going back in the building to get people out until the Secret Service stopped him. This speaks to him as a person. Interesting how he can have so little political moral compass but seem to have a personal one? Does that jive with your view of him?
Sally Quinn: I believe that he is a genuinely moral person. I can't say how he factors that in to his decisions on the war.
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Tampa, Fla.: I would like to know how the Vice President can publicly announce (the other day) that "Things are going well in Iraq". Is he talking about the same Iraq that the rest of America is referring to? I think this shows either a complete denial of acknowledge making a mistake or complete ignorance.
Sally Quinn: I think denial is a good explanation. Spin would also work.
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Seattle, Wash.: I, too, am struck by how divisive political debate has become....it seems like policies and solutions are no longer discussed as much as politics surrounding the issue are.
Do you think that the Iraq question will continue to divide the two parties after Rumsfeld and the Bush administration are gone, or will a new bunch of neocons rise up to take their place? Or, do you predict the Republican party will move closer to the center in it's rhetoric on "value" issues much like the Democrats moved to the center during the Clinton admin. on finance?
Sally Quinn: I think that the Democrats will never let the Republicans forget who's war it is. I think the days of the neocons in the war planning arena are over. I think if the republicans don't move to the center on the value issues they're going to have problems. It doesn't make sense to claim to be the party of values, as if there are no democrats who have values, and then start the Foley scandal in the face.
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McLean, Va.: Do you know if Rumsfeld ever goes out to eat or the movies or anything? I understand he lives around here - I think in NoVa.
The Bush Twins were routinely spotted in various places such as bars in Foggy Bottom. I was just wondering if he ever goes out shopping at the mall or anything like that or is he always hunkered down in some war room then goes home to sleep then comes back.
Thanks.
Sally Quinn: They do go out to eat quite often with friends, but usually on Fridays. They have a house on the Eastern shore where they like to go on weekends to relax and play tennis. His wife loves the movies, he doesn't. They have a great marriage of over 50 years I think. They were high school sweethearts.
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Rochester, N.Y.: Unless there is some secret in his background that would not bear questioning about, I think Sam Nunn could heal the breeches and help push for an achievable goal in the Iraq mess. But how can anyone still back the total failure of this administration in it's war planning and implementation, whatever their politics are?
Sally Quinn: Everyone likes and respects Sam Nunn and there are a lot of people pushing for him to take the job. Whether he will or not I can't say. But he is certainly being talked about as a possibility. I also think that whoever does take it, whether it is Nunn or anyone else will come in with a clean slate and say, "I am not here to criticize I am here to try to work things out.
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Sally Quinn: Your questions have been really thoughtful and I appreciate all of you writing in. I'm sorry I have to sign off now, since there are still a lot more really good questions but time time is up. Thanks so much. Sally Q
November 10/11/12, 2006 -- According to Washington insiders, there are moves afoot to dump Vice President Dick Cheney and replace him with either John McCain or Rudolph Giuliani prior to the 2008 presidential election. Whoever succeeds Cheney will be able to campaign for the presidency with the perks that come with being an incumbent Vice President.
Since the increasingly-besieged Cheney has signaled he has no intention of voluntarily stepping down, the strategy by the Bush camp may be to force him out by presenting evidence before Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald that it was Cheney who was responsible for the compromise of CIA non-proliferation covert officer Valerie Plame Wilson and her Brewster Jennings & Associates cover firm.
Observers note the unusual professional relationship between Fitzgerald and Karl Rove's defense attorney Robert Luskin. Insiders believe that Fitzgerald may be proffered a carefully crafted deal by Luskin whereby Rove will testify to Cheney's primary role in the outing of Mrs. Wilson and her firm. The sealed indictment of Rove will then be retired permanently. If such a deal is worked out, Fitzgerald may then offer a deal to Lewis I. "Scooter" Libby, Cheney's former Chief of Staff, to also testify against Cheney. With such double-barreled testimony, President Bush will then be compelled to ask Cheney for his resignation or face a very nasty and public indictment.
The game plan appears to be what DC insider Sally Quinn foresaw in her Washington Post op-ed last month, an article that suggested she has spoken extensively to a Donald Rumsfeld who was aware of his impending firing. The op-ed stated that Rumsfeld would not be the scapegoat for Iraq and planned to resign shortly after the election. Quinn, seemingly channeling Rumsfeld, stated that after Rumsfeld left, there will be only two scapegoats left: Dick Cheney and George W. Bush. The article concluded by asking which person would be served up as the official scapegoat for Iraq.
This editor wrote, "based on the arrival of James Baker and a coterie of George H. W. Bush old hands on the scene to bail out Dubya, it is clear that the Bush family does not intend to allow one of its own to be declared scapegoat."
With word from White House sources that Cheney was opposed to the sacking of his old mentor Rumsfeld and even more resistant to the naming of Bush family loyalist Robert Gates to take his place, it is clear that Cheney does not want to be placed in a position of exposure. However, even Cheney neo-con allies like Richard Perle and Ken Adelman, sensing that Cheney is the designated scapegoat, have bellowed about the Iraq war being a mistake and are now distancing themselves from the Cheney group, once the most powerful operating cell within the Bush administration.
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