Hi Fosco,
For Cotton, I was thinking what does the surgeon think about the number of "odd" events in a cancer population of this size and duration. Maybe the surgeon will quote the published statistics or maybe have some personal insight.
For the green line in the spreadsheet, you see how there are little jagged edges more pronounced with fewer dice "", those alternate between more and less likely (a wee bit). Over the course of the thing if you do +1 and -1 you would expect those to balance out as the thing runs day to day... and if you use billions of dice, it does. If you use millions of dice, there is a window of 7 "more" events, i.e., it reaches 298, 7 events sooner than billions of dice if you use fewer dice. The point of that is that the universe generally tries to do things the easiest way, even generating the idea of "random" to begin with.
From that I subtract some ball park idea of how many "odd" events to get the red line, and then see what that many events means to 'time'. And note that 2/3rds of whatever that is must already be accounted for... Thus Orange stuff.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
