Replies to post #18232 on Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[lightrock]

Not yet, I'd love to be able to say that.

All I am saying is that you can figure out relative constraints, and when you do you can apply random dice to them. And they will tell you things you cannot figure out otherwise.

I just got it running, had to write software, the spreadsheet can't do this.

But... this is the tool I will be using from now on I think. It doesn't matter as much or at all now what other studies say, we know enough about our own population to be able to do this.

I have to run the SOC and Test groups in parallel and right now it only does the total population. If that also correlates then I can put up some good numbers. They are still "probable" kind of numbers, but... pretty freaking cool... especially if it can separate the dates.

...what would be really funny is if it actually nailed the exact date. I don't know what day the last of the 133 events happened on, I had to assume they meant Feb 28, 2017. Maybe it took 'em a week to post it. I would not be surprised if it is actually that accurate with the total population. But I don't know.

[lightrock]

Here is 208 events, as of Feb 2018

Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1502. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1397158. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1503. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1403073. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1504. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1400238. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1505. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1397646. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1506. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1393856. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1507. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1387313. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1508. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1392979. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1509. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1391258. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1510. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1399820. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1511. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1401447. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1512. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1404970. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1513. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1400426. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1514. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1400316. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1515. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1403050. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1516. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1414271. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1517. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1408935. How many times: 500

Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1518. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1381946. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1519. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1384062. How many times: 500

X MARKS THE SPOT ! (the area of "least effort") that is to the day, as far as I know
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1520. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1389259. How many times: 500

Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1521. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1382498. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1522. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1387294. How many times: 500

Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1523. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1395696. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1524. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1385848. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1525. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1391186. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1526. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1376558. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1527. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1394103. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1528. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1385108. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1529. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1390715. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1530. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1395829. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1531. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1383599. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1532. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1387653. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1533. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1400107. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1534. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1388500. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1535. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1389301. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1536. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1391145. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1537. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1398258. How many times: 500
Dataset Total: Population. Current Day: 1538. Min. OAS%: 43. Effort to achieve goal of: 208. Effort: 1394087. How many times: 500