Trustbaby,
Well it depends on SOC survival, the big unknown, the 10B$ question.
My model for stage III+IVa cancer, with 84% Y1, 63% Y3, 54% survival at Y5, says we passed the threshold in January (which means that should the 298th even have occurred in Jan a 10% benefit would have been noted) and should reach primary outcome (298 deaths) by October with 25% benefit in MK arm