Lightrock
I had a look at your renewed sheet. I believe there is a fundamental issue in it which lies in cells H5,H6,H7. Death rates are not linear. They are high in the first years and decrease in time : survivors are those getting cancer resistant. The curve is getting flat.
You can't even say "2 people will die every Xmonths". You could eventually say 2% of survivors die every X months. That's called a constant death rate "k" in time (dS=-kSdt) and this would show an exponential curve (like in nuclear decay) and a not linear curve. But even the rate is not constant, it diminishes with time.
The more appropriate approximation seems to b e the log curve which is getting flat in time. If you take a look at UK survival data (where we have 3 points in time : y1, y5 and y10), it matches quite well the three point.
So the impact in your, otherwise remarkable, work : you over-estimate survival in the early years before Y5 (which were most of the patients come from) : therefore your survival is too strong with SOC, or you have to show a low rate of responders (24%).
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