Replies to post #91834 on Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[mm2k]

Not even close, this argument is getting a little old. Clearly Amgen had some different priorities or saw something (the something could be as simple as how long it will take and the cost) they didn't like, but there's no indication they saw a problem with the science.

[ubmmg]

The answer whether NEO is dead or alive now depends on how these 2 questions are now answered:
1) What is the estimated cost for the NEO treatment per patient?
2) What is the efficacy of the NEO?
If the costs are exceeding $0.5M per patient, however, it does not show great efficacy, then it would be really hard to partner it now and the program is going to be dead. If the efficacy is superior, and the costs are higher than $1M, then we have good chances of re-partnering this program.
Recall that we have some clinical data now as opposed to 08/2017 when we did not have any clinical data and AMGN jumped in via taking cheap long-term options. If the data is quite compelling, the costs can be reduced if the big pharma decides to take another chance here. They have wherewithals to make this drug viable, and ADXS can argue for a more front-loaded deal than before. I am just afraid there could be something else that is not made public yet -- e.g. low efficacy, or safety issues.

Chances of surviving this NEO program:
Costs: ~$0.5M/pp $1M-$1.5M pp
Efficacy:
so-so low none
great high good