Replies to post #499374 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[HoldenWalker99]

What would you say would have to happen in order to reach your $5 target price??

You're in luck!

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=146427552

Common thesis took one on the chin today. Reformed charters - smaller footprint, reduced scope, more guarantors, higher fees, affordable housing kickbacks - all point to lower earnings. The administration wants to work with Congress on that. Calabria has been saying it all along and I've been pointing it out, but everyone is ignoring.

That's why I used a $200 billion valuation - $20 billion earnings X 10 P/E.

Unfortunately, the longer that Congress takes to make these reforms, the harder setting an IPO valuation will be. No one is going to invest at current GSE earnings valuation (like Moelis uses) if earnings are going to get kneecapped.

Preferred close to getting there. Common have a long road ahead. But $5 is doable.

[Commons_Cancelled]

End NWS, consider SPS repaid, and allow the GSEs to rebuild capital. You need all those things to come together for existing shares to have any value. That value will be derived from how much capital is required and how they are going to raise that amount of capital. Otherwise, we're all just gambling and shooting in the dark.