Replies to post #223088 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

RVNC

I think the dearth of clinical trial news in the next 12-18 months is causing the fast money crowd to be on the sidelines. There is also an upcoming PDUFA for EOLS,a competitor, feb 2 which could also have people on the sidelines.
JMO

PS: EOLS - without a differentiated product, albeit about a year ahead of RVNC to market - has an EV only about 100M or so less than RVNC. Quite a valuation disconnect if you ask me

[DewDiligence]

There’s a common (mis)conception that biotech stocks move only in response to an identifiable catalyst, so by this mode of thinking RVNC is “dead money” until 2020.

In fact, biotech stocks often make big moves when they are least expected.

[DewDiligence]

Re: US botulinum-toxin pricing following EOLS’ launch

Most likely, EOLS will settle on a price comparable to Dysport and Xeomin—i.e. a modest discount to Botox. AGN may resort to some short-term direct-to-consumer rebates in aesthetic indications to hinder EOLS’ launch, but AGN won’t cut the list price of Botox or lower the net realized price in therapeutic indications, IMO.

All told, I don’t expect EOLS’ launch to have a material effect on US pricing.

[Reposted from the RVNC message board.]