So you disagree that companies that perform a r/s generally perform worse than their peers. Great
Consider which appropriate (broadly defined) category ADXS falls into:
1) RS done solely to reduce the share count, with no plans to issue shares to raise capital
2) RS done with the intent to raise capital with a plan to issue more shares
3) RS done from a position of strength where the pps has been robust
4) RS done from a position of weakness where the pps is in the dumps
Consider factors like Pipeline, company performance and market sentiment, revenue/income generated, credentials of BOD and Management, etc.
One would not need to do any modeling to come up with the likelihood of the post RS scenario. There are of course exceptions, but not if too many negatives are stacked up.