Replies to post #488336 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Potty]

If you cannot imagine $20 a share for the commons, then you have little imagination -- Moelis puts it at $17 for crying out loud, Ackman (prior to he favorable tax changes) put it in the range $23-$48 with well argued analysis supporting that...

But whatever... this board is full of people who have far too much time on their hands to argue for conclusions that matter not at all.

Looking forward to 2019, Happy New Year!

[HappyAlways]

First, there is certainly a cap on the commons. $1000 per share is pure fantasy, and in my opinion $20 is also. Also, the cap on the prefs is higher than par due to a possible partial conversion to common.

Second, I am 100% in the prefs right now, so I believe they will outperform the commons, even from today's prices. The highest realistic price I can think of for the commons is $8, which would represent a greater return than the prefs (assuming they go to par), but I also think the commons have downside to around 40 cents. The weighted average of my projections for the commons is just shy of $3, making the prefs the better bet.

But, do remember UST has 79.9% warrants to sell. They need to pick a high price for commons. Given the current eps, $10 will be about right. So, commons are pretty safe. IMO. GLTA.

[CatBirdSeat]

Judging by the volume on common versus preferred it’s clear nobody wants to buy a preferred; and there sure are a lot of buyers on the common.

Everyone Can See Right Through The Shenanigans Preferred Holders Have Been Pulling..