"I'm thinking we are nearing a top. $1,300 gold might be a good selling point... \"
I guess that depends on your time perspective and the reason you buy precious metals. Because you bought lower (I assume) you will make a short-term profit by selling at the arbitrary line drawn on the chart.
A basic premise that I operate from is that the paper spot price of gold and silver is heavily manipulated by the U.S. government to protect the status of the U.S. Dollar as the world reserve currency. I actually saw an interview a few years ago when a Treasury official commented that the U.S. Dollar will "Always be the world reserve currency." I can only assume that he has a very weak understanding of history or an enormous amount of hubris.
Another basic premise that I operate from is that increasing global debt does not solve a global debt problem and that all fiat currencies eventually return to their intrinsic value. $250 Trillion and climbing in global debt is never going to be repaid. Someone or some entity is going to take losses in the future.
Smart money is starting to flow from the base of the Exter Pyramid toward the peak of the Pyramid. Smart money was making money every quarter in 2017. Something changed in 2018 and especially in the last quarter of 2018. Smart money is looking over their shoulder at the exit as we enter the new year.
James Rickards talks about complexity theory and instability. The price chart you used in your post does not include information about any of the global situations that contribute to geopolitical instability or the effect of market manipulation that destroys free market price discovery.
I realize this discussion will fall on deaf ears for most day traders. I think and believe that gold and silver are currently undervalued. I think and believe that gold and silver are financial insurance for wealth preservation. Investments you buy and sell. Insurance you hold for when the storm comes.
My time perspective and my reason for buying precious metals are different from yours. I did not say better, I said different. We are living in a financial system that does not have "sound money" as a foundation. I do not believe that central banks hold the interests of individual citizens as important as their interest in maintaining the banking system status quo and centralization of financial power.
I do not see $1300 as a top. I see $1300 as a breakout point long overdue when the physical market controls the spot price over the paper market spot price. I would rather be early to a breakout point rather than late because when the physical market takes control of the spot price the result will be nothing short of breathtaking.
I do wish you the best of luck in your trading endeavors.
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