My bet is that the surest event will be upon Otting's arrival and a few days to grease the legal skids on an Amndment 5 and recision of the Net Worth Sweep. Whether that reverts back to the 10% divvy predecessor arrangement can only be known at that time. For any recap to be feasible, the SPD would need to be cancelled, IMO.
My instinct and the consistent DoNotLose Twitter conversation regarding Otting, Mnuchin and Paulson leads me to the likelihood that UST elects to keep the warrants, either for conversion under Moelis or an eventual payday prior to 2028 when the option to exercise expires.
I totally agree that 2019 is going to finally deliver some consequential action for F&F investors. Let's all hope any such action is favorable.
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