"According to Leo: “Estimates vary as to the market size (in dollars) of an effective OM treatment, for HNC-only patients, across major markets (U.S., Europe and Japan), ranging between $500 million and $1.5 billion on an annual basis (sources: GlobalData; Redington Inc., pdf). One company in the OM space projects the worldwide OM market opportunity to be as high as $2.6 billion annually.” "
Was that before or after he applied for an Orphan Drug Designation? "The Orphan Drug Designation program provides orphan status to drugs and biologics which are defined as those intended for the safe and effective treatment, diagnosis or prevention of rare diseases/disorders that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the U.S., or that affect more than 200,000 persons but are not expected to recover the costs of developing and marketing a treatment drug." https://www.fda.gov/forindustry/developingproductsforrarediseasesconditions/default.htm
I am trying to get an idea of the size of an OM deal, namely the upfront payment and affect on the stock. I am contemplating buying some more IPIX but I have no idea where the numbers will come in when a deal arrives.
Can you elaborate a bit on how you reach $50-75 million upfront based on $500 million per year sales. I'm not too experienced with deriving this kind of valuation. If you don't have time that's ok and thank you for your thoughts.