I think crude bounces to high $50s. Sentiment is bad but fundamentals are looking ok now. Production cuts left and right and inventories the last couple of weeks have been dropping a lot. I actually believe there might be more risk of a supply shortfall next year. Anyway I believe crude bounces to high 50s within a month. Then yes the final flush you are looking for could happen in February/March to bring oil to 46 or so. After that it is up and up from there.