Replies to post #447 on Origin House (fka ORHOF)

[CornellEngineer]

Ready for the next run?

Not really...LOL. We got totally fed up with all these pot stocks and flushed 'em all yesterday. Closed out all 3 open positions and went to all cash. I'm not convinced we are due for a big run just yet and we needed a reset and a little rest. This DeFrancesco debacle and the entire Aphria affair got me pretty sour on almost the whole sector right now. You know from our earliest exchanges that I was pretty much a pot pessimist from the get-go and I might be even more so right now.

Don't get me wrong...I still like Origin House a lot. It still is one of if not my favorite MJ companies of the entire sordid lot. But we just had to get away from it for a while until the sector stabilizes a little. I need to see at least a little sideways trading action for a spell until we have some clearly defined upper and lower trading ranges that I can swing trade profitably rather than just throwing darts and praying that we don't lose all our profits to date. I don't think we've necessarily hit a bottom yet and the broader markets are looking real scary right now. If they tank I don't think we're gonna see the pot sector zoom while the DJIA & S&P & NASDAQ are plummeting. If/when Origin House shows me a clearly bullish uptrend or at least a well-defined range that I can successfully trade we will jump back in but until then we are through with these pure pot stocks that aren't making any real money for the time being.

OH's recent acquisition that cost another $7 million probably means the next quarter will show another loss as well. While I personally think this is very probably a good move that will pay off in the long run the market will likely punish them when the time comes like it just did for OH and many of the other MJ stocks after their recent last earnings reports and they all ended up getting hammered despite rapidly increasing revenue.

I think we're gonna try a CBD play and open a position with Charlotte's Web tomorrow and see what happens with that. They have been on my radar screen for a long time now and it appears to be a much better-behaved stock with a fairly well-defined trading range. Plus they are actually already profitable and are making money...gasp, imagine that...real profits!

Hey, speaking of CBD oil how is the stuff you started taking recently working? Is it helping with whatever you are taking it for or not? Is it a specific brand made by a specific company or is it just a generic oil? Was curious if it was the stuff made by Charlotte's Web or not...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-farm-bill-could-2019-183841407.html

Anyway, since we are currently out of Origin House I hope you guys don't take off without us. Either wait until we get back in or better yet why don't you bounce back and forth between $5 and $8 several times so I know where to start buying and selling?

[CornellEngineer]

Here are a few numbers to give you an idea how bad it's been lately (as if you don't already know!) and why I am so sour on the sector right now. We started swing trading these pot stocks back in early September...by mid-November we were up about 40% on our original stake. Now keep in mind that when we started trading most of the huge late summer runup was already over so we didn't benefit much from that like most of you guys who have been investing in MJ stocks for a longer time did. For much of this time the sector traded sideways and considering that the entire sector crashed in the second half of October I think 40% was pretty damn good, if I do say so myself.

But in just the last 3 weeks or so that overall gain plummeted from 40% to only a little over 10%...still a way better return than just sitting in cash but that's a lot of profit that just went poof. We're still up overall on our Origin House trades as a whole but ORHOF had something to do with some of that % gain dropping like a rock.

Still a good if not potentially great company that I believe will be a winner over the long haul but I just think that Charlotte's Web might be a better play at the moment and I need a trade that makes that % go back up instead of down. Plus as far as I know that DeFrancesco scumbag has nothing to do with hemp! I just can't believe that the Aphria & Liberty folks don't seem to give a crap that their stocks are infested with crooked SOBs but nobody ever accused marijuana investors of being a rational bunch of people...LOL.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/24/forget-thc-cannabidiol-cbd-is-the-marijuana-indust.aspx

Forget THC...and eff DeFrancesco!

[CornellEngineer]

Huge news in the MJ sector...

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3415234-pot-stocks-set-rally-altria-1_8b-investment-cronos-group

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/altria-to-invest-c24-billion-in-canadian-cannabis-company-cronos-2018-12-07

Trading is currently halted on Cronos...when it reopens it will probably be sky-high...

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cron

It was similar news that started the huge run on all the pot stocks back in mid-August. Seems we sold off all our pot stocks a day too early...LOL.

[CornellEngineer]

Hey, John...is it just me or do you also think the MJ sector's response to the huge news this morning about Altria & Cronos was pretty damn tepid today? Similar news like this back in mid-August about Constellation & Canopy made the entire sector rocket upward for about 3 weeks but this equally big news pretty much didn't do squat. In fact, many pot stocks still ended lower for the day or not up very much at all.

Either the broader markets totally dampened out what otherwise mighta been a stellar day for cannabis stocks or MJ investors are starting to wise up and realize that great news for one pot stock doesn't necessarily mean good news for every single one of them like that buying frenzy craziness back in August.

Maybe we will have a delayed reaction in the days to come but IMO the marijuana sector is still VERY weak at the moment.