Replies to post #31521 on Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[misiu143]

BD, - Very good post , thank you . I will give my short opinion ,

Since within 6-9 months we should have a very good profits from Dr RP prostate cancer prognostic test , and not to need other money..
I believe it is the best test right now , so should become popular very fast , it is the best for every men with prostate cancer , most urologist will use it for all their patients , I am positive about that , we all want the best for our patients !!!

I feel that it is better to take small Paulson loans for this few months than to make one big but poor deal for us ..

I also believe that 480 M in 2020 from HIV is very conservative just looking at number of patients MDR2...

But if they will get great deal, of course it will be the best ..:))

[Saltz]

BD, that is in a nutshell exactly how Nader and Pestell are looking at it. I also basically see it the same way. Small Paulson raises until the landscape changes. My only difference with your thesis is the catalyst will be the P3 Pivotal Mono Trial. As soon as FDA approves protocol it will enroll within a couple months and the writing will be on the wall. If it’s the Prostate test great, I just don’t see it compared to the leverage with BP regarding the efficacy and clean safety profile at the 700ml dosage. 90% plus Mono efficacy forces Gilead’s hand especially if another BP moves first. Bottom line is it’s going to disrupt SOC and it will only take one interested party to start a bidding war. Gilead is rolling the dice right now with their nose in the air. We shall see 1H 2019 how this plays out.

[z_smith]

My thoughts on the subject are:

1) Market Raises
If we raise based on our trading price, we will be locked-in to $0.50 + warrants -- i.e. same ol' story -- a discount to the trading price. This is true whether we raise with Paulson, HC Wainright, or any other bank.

2) We need money -- period -- now and to cover us for the next 6 months. 6 months from now, it should be MUCH easier to get money as we will be so close to FDA approval. So, how do we get the money now?

3) Licensing would be great. I am not holding my breath. During the 09/13/2018 Con Call, Nader said: “Prostate cancer Assay could be approved by FDA within a year or so.” Therefore, I think a partnership for this is likely too far away. It would be great if it happens, as it could drive our pps and then potentially trigger our warrants to be exercised and the resulting -- what is it, $80M+ in cash to the company?

4) As BlackDoggie mentions, it is VERY unlikely to find a debt funding source. Unless it is convertible debt. And that would be just disguised equity and probably on worse terms.

Nader's statement of finding non-dilutive funding on the Con Call is just undisciplined banter and over optimism. CYDY can't raise debt. Therefore, the only non-dilutive funding is a partner or NIH. And he wasn't pursing NIH and wasn't close to any partnership deal.

5) IMO, the best path would be to find an institutional fund that can see that money is the only gate holding us back from achieving the potential. If they see the near-term appreciation in valuation, they would be willing to do an "up round". They could e.g. put in $50M to ensure we get over line of FDA approval for COMBO. Knowing that that would dramatically improve our pps. And knowing that -- combined with the fact that they couldn't buy $50M worth of shares on the open market without driving up the pps -- they should be willing to make that investment at a significant premium to our $0.50 pps.

The only problem with that, is that I don't think Nader & Mike know how to raise money from these institutional funds. And I doubt these funds would have confidence in Nader & Mike.

Therefore, my best guess is that we will be back to Paulson sooner than later -- or some similar form of sub-optimal funding based on the market price vs. any reasonable valuation.

This is one area where good (and great) management makes a huge difference. I believe we will still get over the line, but CYDY management will have let a lot of money slip through all the shareholder's fingers for no good reason. And the patients will suffer the delays in not being able to advance this remarkable molecule to market as quickly as is imminently possible.

All, IMO.