Replies to post #426 on Origin House (fka ORHOF)

[CornellEngineer]

It's funny you sent me that chart because earlier today I was gonna send you a different MJ ETF that shows a similar pattern...

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/hmlsf

If you click on 3 months you will see it is pretty much doing the same thing.

Eventually the triangle will get small enough as it converges that price will either break out to the upside or break down to the downside. Anybody's guess at this point which way it will go.

As far as some of these Canuck stocks have dropped from their pre-crash highs they can still go a lot lower. Some folks simply refuse to believe that...most of them are too young to remember the dot-com boom/bust in the late 90s. Seems every generation has to learn the hard way!

[CornellEngineer]

Here is a good summary that I like to eyeball every week just to get a quick gut feel for how things are going...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226026-weekly-cannabis-report-2018-farm-bill-mixed-bag-u-s-earnings

You can see that generally speaking there's a lot more green for the US pot stocks than the Canadian ones over the last several months but last week was not kind to either sub-sector. Many of the US stocks (like Origin House) reported terrific revenue growth but most also continued to lose money so it will likely be rough sledding until some can manage to actually start turning a real profit and that could easily take several more earnings cycles.

I believe that the ETFs you and I each referred to are heavily weighted with large and mid-cap Canuck stocks...it would be interesting if there was an ETF that was primarily made up of just the US-based operators. I imagine that chart would look much better but to my knowledge no such ETF exists.

IMO, the best a person can do if he insists on speculating in the marijuana sector is to pick a handful of US-based stocks and hopefully they will wind up with 2 or 3 nice winners among that group that more than make up for the others which will eventually prove to be big losers.