Replies to post #222517 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

By calendar year Abbvie has gross HCV Sales of $2.711 Bil so wouldn't you think they'll fall into the 20% category soon if not already. I wouldn't think VPAK represents 10% of sales.

The gross sales number for percentage determination is not the total HCV number , but 50% for Mav. So for purposes of determining the %, it is a little under $1.5055B. So you get to DD's 8.5% of the total HCV sales.

The real issue continues to be whether 2018 is the peak year for HCV sales for ABBV. We have no real idea (since the companies have not been able to give good guidance, especially OUS where ABBV has the majority of its sales). We know that Japan will be reducing prices, but we have no idea about volume there or elsewhere. GILD generic starts competing in non-commercial 01/01/19. I assume that it have an effect on pricing there (maybe big-time), but it might open more markets (e.g. prisons). Commercial scripts have held up very well industry wide this year, with ABBV being flat for quite a while and GILD losing small amounts over time. See https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2629&mn=11828&pt=msg&mid=18874010 and the various posts in the thread. Again the commercial script numbers are not very helpful for ABBV since its strength is in non-commercial and OUS.