Replies to post #482700 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

Even though this is somewhat old news (~1 year), it is worth noting with rumors swirling of Calabria being nominated to head the FHFA. Thanks for posting it.

One important takeaway (emphasis added):

To that end, Calabria said the Trump administration is committed to not handing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in conservatorship over to the next administration, but cautioned that the process will not be easy. "If it were easy to get GSEs out of conservatorship, it would have been done already," Calabria said.

This reinforces Mnuchin's desire (relayed by Craig Phillips) to have the companies out of conservatorship by the end of Trump's term.

It bears repeating: both Calabria and Mnuchin mean the end of this presidential term, because they cannot guarantee that Trump will be re-elected, and releasing the companies isn't something that be accomplished entirely between the lame duck period between the November 2020 election and January 2021 inauguration. The wheels will have to start turning pretty soon to get the companies recapitalized.

The quote right before that also echoes Mnuchin:

With that lack of capital at the GSEs, taxpayers are more exposed to the mortgage market today than ever before, Calabria said.

Taxpayer safety will be maximized by two things: the companies are adequately capitalized, and Treasury's funding commitment is pulled.

The idea that Treasury will consent to a long recap with a government backstop directly contradicts both Mnuchin's and Calabria's desires. They both want taxpayers off the hook ASAP, which means getting that funding commitment off the table as fast as they can. That, in turn, means raising capital for the companies quickly. No more than two years, actually, to conform with the timeline.