Replies to post #97187 on Supurva Healthcare Group Inc (SPRV)

[waterchaser]

No thanks.

[STOCK PROF]

Going to pop in a month :)

[rawman]

For the next 3 to 4 weeks the revenue should be $10+ millions

Where'd this magic number come from?

At the time of the SPRV acquisition Web to Door's 2018 total revenue forecast was roughly the same as the claimed 2017 accomplishment. If one can believe Rod Santulan, which now appears doubtful, the Company delivered 10 million packages in 2017 and anticipates delivering a similar 10 million packages in 2018. The recent Santulan PR seems to indicate this remains the case!

In July 2018 SPRV reported Web to Door had 300 employees. This was when the ANNUAL FORECAST OF 10 MILLION PACKAGES was made public. And this was when the revenue forecast was approximately $15 million. As of the last ten days, SPRV announced that its headcount had increased to just over 400 employees. This represents a 25% increase since July. The monthly revenue target in July was $1.25 million. Very simply, a 900% increase in revenue from 25% more employees doesn't compute!

$10 million in less than a month is NOT EVEN CLOSE TO REALITY! $2 million in one the Holiday month of December would be a miracle!

BTW...looking at the business metrics, it is interesting to note that Web to Door apparently only receives a measly average of about $1.50 in revenue for every package delivered! One just needs to divide $15 million in revenue by 10 million packages to arrive at $1.50 per package! These are Web to Door's publicly "claimed" numbers, not mine! Ten days ago on November 14, 2018, Rob Santulan provided the following update!

From September to October, the Company delivered 25% more packages, with 580,000 delivered in September and 725,000 delivered in October. For November and December we are forecasted to deliver over 920,000 and roughly 1 million packages, respectively.

At a buck and a half per package it looks like SPRV is projecting something around $1.5 million in revenue for the entire month of December! Needless to say, this is far different than the $10 million claimed in the post!

Doing the math it is hard to fathom how Web to Door did 10 million packages in 2017 and will do the same in 2018! The investors have not been made privy to verifiable facts about the package delivery volume from January 2018 through August 2018, but Santulan is NOW "TOUTING" A TOTAL OF JUST OVER 3.24 MILLION PACKAGES FOR THE HIGHER VOLUME FOUR MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER THRU DECEMBER 2018. FOUR MONTHS IS ONE THIRD OF A YEAR. MULTIPLYING 3.24 BY 3, ONE ARRIVES AT A TOTAL VOLUME OF 9.72 MILLION PACKAGES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR AND WE KNOW THIS IS HIGH, BECAUSE THE SAMPLE IS BASED UPON THE FOUR HIGHEST VOLUME MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER THRU DECEMBER, PLUS ON COURIER 365 HAS PURPORTEDLY EXPANDED, SINCE MID-YEAR!

Simply stated, it appears Santulan was likely misstating the truth, when touting the Web to Door business metrics at the time of the SPRV acquisition! It will be most enlightening to finally see a financial statement, assuming one is actually posted one of these days! Of course the actual package delivery volume will likely not be included in the report!