Replies to post #150251 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

The thing that pisses me off, I warned "them" about all of these things. I warned them not to count on the $100M loan. I warned them about the need for cash dividends last year. I even warned them about the TRW distribution and told Peter they have to check everything FIVE TIMES.

And I am warning them now. We have to do more.

[RealDutch]

CA-deals (another swear word)

Not to me. I know what they are trying to do. It's throughout the filings. And since they are not telling the story, I will have to do it.

It's about cooperatives. And we know that CA wants to charge their customers $1.1M per hectare for conversion to 3G ODRAS.

First question we need to answer is, who will finance it? Not easy to answer, but this is what we know. The $100M loan was going to AF4/5, the experimental farm etc. Not to these developments. And they were planning a listing for CA. Why a listing for CA? That implies an investor or partner who wants to see the company listed.

Now, let's assume that CA will get that partner. That's a double whammy. Not only will the value of CA be reflected in the share price, but you get the growth and earnings on top.

So what is CA worth then? I already know that 2,000 mu (133 hectares) per year conversion to ODRAS is roughly what they had planned. 133 x $1.1M. Let's make it $100M revenue for CA per year. 20% gross margin, P/E of 10. So CA could easily be worth $200M. But we already knew that.

But that's not all. CA will be entitled to 10%? of all future profits from these cooperatives. They would be crazy not to get a piece of that. Or could it be 30% as a full service provider? Let's stick with 10%.

Now, 133 hectares per year = 10,000 MT/year. $120M in revenue, or $40M profit. 10% of that for CA is $4M. That's $4M the first year, $8M the 2nd year, and $12M the 3rd year. On top op what they make on consultancy. Although as I said, it could even be much higher.

This is how I see it. The stock will explode if it happens. Nobody is expecting it.

I know why they are keeping a lit on this. They can't discuss it until after the partner acquires an interest in CA. If that's the plan.

10-K

At the same time throughout 2017, CA has been servicing groups of farmers aiming to develop some of their properties (estimated over 600 Mu collectively) in nearby regional districts within 2018 as well as over 400 Mu of land next to ODRAS(3G) farm (1) in 2018.

1,000 mu the first year. Actually, this should be a question for the conference call. What is holding this back? How will CA benefit, how much? etc.