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Slickrock

11/22/18 9:11 AM

#1533 RE: Rapture2020 #1532

Nice post, Rapture, thanks for putting it together.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Rapture2020

11/22/18 10:34 AM

#1534 RE: Rapture2020 #1532

One additional note, from the Q3 Con Call:

During the third quarter of 2018, we utilized our aftermarket facility, raising $6.9 million. We raised a further $6.4 million net after commissions through the ATM after September 30, taking advantage of significantly higher stock prices, particularly during the month of October.

I am now of the opinion CRMD's ATM, and not a massive short attack, was the catalyst behind the PPS cratering. If they raised $6,400,000 (after commission), and assume an avg. share price of $1.65, then it's likely 4 million new shares (including commission) were cashed in.

CRMD did the same thing in late July into August after the DSMB interest safety analysis was released. I don't begrudge the need for funding, certainly.

Pure speculation here, but I think the possibility that CRMD might be inclined to fire up the ATM a third time (if positive news comes in the late Jan/early Feb 2019 time-frame) was the primary driver of Elliot's decision to offer the round of funding for $7.9M at a generous $1.50 per share, thereby keeping CRMD afloat through mid-2019 and allowing the PPS to rise organically and unfettered.

And to me, that's a good sign. Elliot is looking for a substantial return on their investment, and they are looking for share price appreciation sooner rather than later. By tapping the brakes on the ATM with the $7.9M funding, CRMD's PPS should appreciate nicely in Q1 and Q2 2019.

Again, just my own musings.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Rapture2020

11/23/18 5:49 PM

#1547 RE: Rapture2020 #1532

Follow up #2--more musing and my opinion only about CRMD and the LPAD for hemodialysis patients...

CRMD’s request for the NDA pathway via LPAD will be limited in scope to include Neutrolin to hemodialysis patients with central venous catheters (LOCK-IT-100). While this is the smallest of CRMD's 3 verticals (Oncology/NPS & ICU are the other two), CRMD estimates a potential U.S. market of 660,000 patients (annually). This would require 31,000,000 units (annually). ANNUALLY.

If given the green light by the FDA in Q1 CY19, CMRD would need to be in a position to deliver millions of units next year. Does anyone think CRMD can do this with their existing R&D-based infrastructure (comprised of 19 employees)? I don't.

Only a handful of companies have been given LPAD designation since it rolled out earlier this year. What I am most interested in is the time delta between FDA green light and product to market. If it's a tight window, then it stands to reason they may already have a partner lined up. Why go to the FDA about a great product for LDAP designation, get approval, celebrate, and then realize the 19 people in your company don't have clue about how to get the product to market. It's not a goof on their existing talent base, just not in their immediate wheelhouse.

If that's the case, a partnership might very well be locked down.

Again, complete conjecture and speculation on my part. But I do draw comfort in knowing that the rabbit hole I dove into on Wednesday makes complete sense to me. And it truth, it may be just one of a dozen avenues being explored by the company.


Please, please please let the data be as constant as the Northern start upon unblinding.




http://www.cormedix.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/WainWright-Presentation-Sept-6th-2018-Final2-2.pdf