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southacresdave

11/14/18 10:46 PM

#555 RE: wadirum1 #554

wadirum1...one thing that would be nice to know is if any of the component shortage carried into 4Q in October (even for a week or so). I doubt it, but it'd be nice to know.

I say this because in the 10Q they mentioned the $7.2M order received and announced on Oct 1rst is part of the $11.4M backlog at the end of Q3. That means US telecom put in some big orders since then. Why would they do that if POLA wasn't showing they could produce big time in October? So, if POLA decided their goal for Q4 was to deliver all $11.4M of the Sept 30th backlog by Dec 31rst, it would then be around $5.2M that has been produced in the first 6 weeks of the quarter. Take $5.2M from $11.4M and you get $6.2M as a balance. To get to the current Nov 9th backlog of $15.1M, it means they turned around and got $8.9M more in orders on top of it already this quarter.

What this means is that if POLA does $11.4M for the quarter, they still finish with $8.9M in backlog + whatever new orders they get for the rest of the quarter. It sets them up well for Q1 to match it. This is important so there isn't a drop off (lumpiness) going forward in revenue. We need them doing $50M+ in 2019 come hell or high water.

I think when you start to look at it this way, I have a hard imagining that delivering the backlog at the end of Q3 isn't their goal. They need to or else they won't be able to take on new orders from international sources (Namibia, Sri Lanka, Thailand) in Q1 2019 as their backlog will be too big to start.

I doubt they want to lose orders by falling behind on production.