Replies to post #148483 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[zerohedge]

recommend. people buy 5 global index funds from the largest 5 economies on the planet, rebalance with 70/30 stocks cash annually and forget about them. then you're guaranteed to keep your money vs buying this scam loser and losing it all. losing even 10% of your capital to a scam like this is unacceptable when by using a sensible strategy you're instead nearly guaranteed to have long term capital gains.

[Akersliden]

Thanks Redbull. :)
Any seriuos advice is much appreciated.
I will try to have patience, my most important goal is that when i retire, i might wawe bye bye to the bank loans that comes with owning a house. :)
Its 15-20 years from now so i hope im not to optimistic.
But once again, thanks, i will keep your advices in mind. :)

[ValueInvestor01]

I would recommend you to diversify, find 10 stocks that you really believe in long-term, then sort out 3 of them. If you have more than $300k to invest, then find 15 and take away 5...

Without regards to companies' fundamentals and their price, this formula is complete non-sense. It's not the great stocks that would make you a lot of money, it's what you pay for it. Don't complicate things.

if you have more than a million to invest then you should probably have at least 15 companies in your portfolio. And of course, diversify over different sectors.

If you are going to diversify just for the sake of diversification, then that's not investing, that's gambling. It's better to put all your eggs in one basket, then watch that basket carefully. As long as you purchase the stock cheap enough below its intrinsic value.

If you'd like to start buying now, you should probably start buying monthly over the next 15 months. In that way, you will average down if the market goes down.

Again, you cannot just buy without regards to companies' fundamentals and their price. What if all the companies are fairly or overvalued, are you just going to keep buying monthly as you suggested? This kind of investing is completely illogical and foolish. It is better to be patience and hold your money until you find the right time to buy.

"You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigour."- Charlie Munger

Buy companies with positive cash flow, companies who will survive a really bad year and/or something unexpected, they should have a good track record, great management, and it's nice if they give out dividends, but it's not the most important thing.

The advice that you should be giving him is not to find the great stocks out there with positive cash flow. Most great companies with positive cash flow are fairly valued if not overvalued. Because for one obvious reason, everyone knows that they are great companies. The advice you should be giving him is to be able to value a company, then buy it on excessive discount when the opportunity comes along.

You should follow the trends in all stocks/sectors and if they break below MA200 reduce your risk, and add if they go above it.

Momentum investing only work until it stops. Those who invest based on trends will never have any clue when to sell. Because by the time the new trend has formed, it's already too late.

MA-200 and most Technical Indicators always lags and are poor guide on investing. It's like looking at the rear mirror and trying to predict what's going to be in front of you, it doesn't make sense. You cannot just invest based on that, the company's price might fluctuate overtime without much changes to its fundamentals.

Remember if you reduce your holdings and are even totally unvested for a while, that that is also a position for you in order to buy cheaper in the future.

How do you know if it is cheap enough to buy? Let me guess, another technical indicators BS!

It's fun to have some riskier bets as well of course, like Siaf, but keep them below 15% in total of your portfolio.

How do you define risk? If your definition of risk as what academic called "beta" or volatility, you are just misleading the public. You cannot define risk with any kind of formula. The only real risk in investing is the idea of losing money, it has nothing to do with volatility or beta. Volatility is volatility, in fact, volatility is your friend, if the price suddenly goes down below its intrinsic value, then it will be the perfect opportunity to buy and vice versa.

If a risky bet has paid off and doubled, reduce some of your exposure and keep the rest in the stock. Try not to get greedy if you're seeing a parabolic movement in a stock or in the market.

This is definitely a bad advice, you are selling based on market price alone without regards to fundamentals.

Try to set up goals, like beat the market with 10% or 15% yearly

Those who said that they can beat the market with certain percent return yearly are either delusional, insane or manipulator. 15% or even 10% are a feat to achieve, only exceptional investors can achieve it annually.

don't be sad if your portfolio drops 30% and the market drops 40% in a year

A 30% drop in your portfolio won't necessarily make it better while the "market" drops to 40%. Losing is still losing.



This is Investors' hub not palm readers' hub, go somewhere with your TA BS! And don't mislead the new investors. Like I said, everything about TA is pure BS! Sounds good, but it doesn't work. You are just guessing, nothing more, nothing less.