Replies to post #85035 on Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[Donjayouworry]

At least they are "Mindful" on this issue ;)

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

Dilution within 6 months

Assuming ~$14M of cash burn during the fiscal quarter ended 10/31/18 (#msg-143474369), ADXS’ cash balance at 10/31/18 is about $45M.

Based on today’s CC, the company's guidance for annualized cash burn has been lowered to $45M.

So within 6 months, they will be down to 6 months of cash, the going concern light will turn on, and the dilution will be issued.

figure 150m new shares at $0.30 to get another years cash.

so long term shareholder will be diluted to less than 25% of their original ownership

shares tanking, down 3% already

[oakrock]

And within 6 months "DATA, DATA, DATA". Who is willing to bet on this data. Can it save our SP? I pray.

[Dragon Lady]

Quote, "Re: ADXS liquidity

Based on today’s CC, the company's guidance for annualized cash burn has been lowered to $45M.

ADXS’ current cash balance is $59.2M less whatever was burned during the fiscal quarter ended 10/31/18 (#msg-143423885, bottom). Assuming ~$14M of cash burn during the fiscal quarter ended 10/31/18 (#msg-143474369), ADXS’ cash balance at 10/31/18 is about $45M.

Thus, ADXS now has about 12 months of operating cash. "

Uh....NO...NOT EXACTLY....that's not how "CASH" at a company "works"...not one that's smoking it at a rate of at least about $4 MILLION a month approx.

They "technically" can state they have "ONE YEAR OF CASH LEFT" but it doesn't "work" that way in REAL-VILLE.

A company can NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER risk burning their cash even remotely close to being down to $ZERO....EVER....CAN NOT HAPPEN...

Thus...THE REAL "PICTURE" of how grave their cash situation is and thus liquidity problems....looks more like this:

$45 mil left on the books....right about now...I'd also "guess" that's about right....

As I stated in my prior post this AM...that means by Dec 31st 2018...they're gonna have burned another approx $8 MILLION off that number....

On Dec 31st 2018...they're at approx 45 - 8 = $37 MILLION lousy bucks left...already entering DANGER WILL ROGERS TERRITORY....RED ALERT...

THEN...buy the time they finish a single qtr in 2019....by end of March.....they'll have burned another $11 MILLION or so....and THAT is assuming they actually can manage their cash properly and still pull-off the "still running and PAYING FOR THE AXAL TRIAL" blah blah blah mulligan re-do makeover they just pitched......

Thus....it's CASH RAISE DILUTION TIME BY END OF MARCH 2019.....

$37 mil - $11 mil = approx $26 MILLION....THEY MUST RAISE CASH AT THAT POINT....no way in H they go anywhere near $20 mil left at a burn-rate of $45 mil....noper.....never gonna happen...

The CASH RAISE/DILUTION PROCESS takes time...it's full of uncertainty...they never know how much they can scrape since their in dire shape, etc. So they'll NEVER GO LOWER THAN THAT END OF MARCH NUMBER...it's too damn risky....

They DO NOT HAVE A "YEAR'S CASH LEFT" in reality....they have till END OF MARCH 2019 AND THEY WILL...TAKE IT TO THE BANK...BE DILUTING TO RAISE CASH (REVERSE SPLIT HIGHLY LIKELY TOO)....it's just that simple.....they're in a hell of a mess and it ain't gonna get better any time "soon".....

THIS IS WHAT I GET AS "VISIONS" of inside ADXS ON ANY GIVEN DAY...only question I have is, WHICH SIDE OF THE TABLE IS KENNY AND THE "C" SUITE BOYS and WHICH SIDE IS THE ADXS TEAM SCREW-BALL INC SIDE ???????

ADXS TO ME...makes INITECH look like geniuses and captain's of industry... splitting the atom....LOL !