If Prurisol attains a PSAI of 50+ and does very well in the Quality of Life questionnaire given to all patients, it could very well become the first recommendation for psoriasis because, as noted, it has next to no side effects, promotes extremely advantageous Quality of Life attributes such as moist, non-itchy skin that also lessens greatly the red splotchy look, has a very easy delivery system, and should be affordable compared to the biologics.
The target market over the life of the patent will be roughly $12B+/ yr and say the patent goes for 15 years. As the first recommended treatment, doctors going to the more costly and far riskier biologics only should Prurisol fail, I would say a $7B/yr revenue stream is fairly modest. $7B x 15 yrs equals a total of $105B over the life of the patent in revenues. Thus, $15B is less than 15% of revenues for IPIX. That doesn't sound extreme to me as a fair deal.
Thus, those are the numbers. As stated previously, if PSAI is below 50 or Quality of Life results aren't stellar or major side effects come up then throw the numbers above out the window.
The numbers above are the upper end and not ridiculous IMO. Even at worst, Prurisol IMO kicks Otezla's ass as it will be found safer and more efficacious and Otezla's revenue stream is going to be over $2B/yr.
So go somewhere in between if you want and assume Prurisol gets $4B/yr for a total of $60B over the life of the patent. Still pretty good numbers and a far cry from what the naysayers are valuing it, assuming they are giving it a positive value at all.
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